The New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays close out their series on Canada Day, with Freddy Peralta on the mound for New York against a Blue Jays bullpen game.
Toronto’s offense has been quiet, but Kazuma Okamoto is swinging the hottest bat on the team, and I’m building around him on a holiday afternoon at a packed Rogers Centre.
Read on for my Mets vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Wednesday, July 1 matchup.
Mets vs Blue Jays predictions
Mets vs Blue Jays best bet: Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 total bases (-175)
This one’s chalkier than I’d like, but it’s my best bet on a quiet Toronto Blue Jays offense. Kazuma Okamoto has risen to the occasion in big moments all season, often with late home runs, and I expect a big showing on Canada Day in front of a raucous crowd, one day after his birthday.
New York Mets starter Freddy Peralta is a heavy fastball guy, leaning on the pitch 52.8% of the time, and Okamoto covers that pitch well, slugging .491 against it with a 94-mph average exit velocity.
I’d play this bet as steep as -190.
COVERS INTEL: Kazuma Okamoto has been Toronto’s hottest qualified hitter over the last two weeks, producing an .895 OPS in that stretch, exactly the form you want behind a total bases prop.
Mets vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
For the SGP, I’m stacking value around the same names. Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases leans on that extra-base pop, as 30 of his 71 hits have gone for extra bases, plus the hot two-week stretch noted above.
Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 hits fits the profile too, with a hit in three of his last five and a swing that matches up well against Peralta.
I’ll cap it with the Blue Jays to win. Toronto put on a thrilling show on Canada Day last year, so I’ll trust the defending AL champions to take the rubber match in front of a red-and-white crowd.
Mets vs Blue Jays SGP
- Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases
- Blue Jays moneyline
- Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 hits
Mets vs Blue Jays home run pick: Nathan Lukes (+875)
Hear me out: The Blue Jays don’t have many great power plays right now, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. dealing with some soreness and Okamoto’s home run market a little too chalk. Dig into the last two weeks, though, and Nathan Lukes looks like the best value on the board. I wouldn’t play him any shorter than +800 and no more than a quarter unit.
Lukes is more of a contact hitter, but he has three homers in his last 13 games, second on the team behind only Okamoto (four) in that span. He’s in a little power surge, and he’s built to cover Peralta’s whole arsenal.
Peralta leans on his four-seam fastball, where Lukes owns a +1 run value, per Baseball Savant, and Lukes is even better against the curveball (+2 run value), a pitch Peralta throws often but doesn’t command well (-4 run value). It helps that Rogers Centre plays as one of the more homer-friendly parks in the AL.
- Best bets: 1-1, +0.2 units
- SGPs: 0-2, -0.5 units
- HR picks: 0-2, -0.5 units
Mets vs Blue Jays odds
- Moneyline: New York -115 | Toronto -105
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+145) | Toronto +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Mets vs Blue Jays trend
The home team has won four of the last five meetings between the Mets and Blue Jays, a small nudge toward Toronto in the finale. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Mets vs Blue Jays and game info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Wednesday, 7-1-2026 |
| First pitch | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
| Mets starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (5-6, 4.53 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Braydon Fisher (3-3, 3.48 ERA) |
Mets vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Mets vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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