The Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants get a series going late tonight in the Golden State.
My Pirates vs Giants predictions expect San Francisco to rebound tonight after a close prime-time loss against the New York Mets – but we’re attacking the game total Under instead.
My MLB picks break it down on Monday, July 28.
Pirates vs Giants prediction
My Pirates vs Giants best bet: Under 8 (-120 at Caesars)
You couldn’t ask for a much better spot for a low-scoring game, and we’re targeting that with our best bet.
The Pittsburgh Pirates begin the first game of this West Coast trip after a home series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The last time they went on a coast-to-coast trip was at the end of last month, when they faced the Seattle Mariners and scored zero runs in the series.
For the San Francisco Giants, they’ll likely face at least some lingering effects of the Sunday Night Baseball hangover, which has plagued many teams, and their subsequent Monday games have gone Under at roughly a 60% clip this season.
While the situational aspects grabbed my attention, they are rarely actionable, and we needed more to make this Under playable. Luckily, we have it.
Mitch Keller grabs the mound for the Pirates, quietly piecing together a strong season.
From an expected ERA perspective, it’s actually the best of his career. The veteran right-hander leans on an elite ground-ball rate that is in the Top 20% of baseball.
He’s facing a Giants team that has had an above-average ground-ball rate over the last two months, which should give Keller the upper hand.
Opposing Keller is rookie Carson Whisenhunt, making his MLB debut. Targeting an Under with an MLB debutante on the mound can be a fearful endeavor, but you can’t ask for a better team to do it against.
By any definable metric, the Pirates are the worst offense in the league and have struggled against the changeup. Whisenhunt will boast a changeup that has created an eye-popping 49% whiff rate in the minors this season. I would play this Under to -128.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Pirates vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Oneil Cruz home run
Just because we expect a low-scoring game doesn’t mean we have to abandon the run-scoring aspect of things, especially when the negative correlation of these two legs offers an incredible boost to the odds.
We're taking a flier on Oneil Cruz to go yard. Facing a pitcher making his debut in the majors who throws a ton of changeups will make the hard-hitting outfielder's eyes light up. Cruz comes into this game with one of the highest hard-hit rates in the league.
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Pirates vs Giants odds
Pirates vs Giants live odds
Pirates vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -105 | San Francisco -115
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-180) | San Francisco -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Pirates vs Giants trend
The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 84 games (+12.70 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Giants.
How to watch Pirates vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Monday, 7-28-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNP, NBCSBA |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Mitch Keller (4-10, 3.53 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Carson Whisenhunt (Triple-A: 8-5, 4.42 ERA) |
Pirates vs Giants latest injuries
Pirates vs Giants weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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