The final game of this NL series gets underway on Sunday with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Pittsburgh Pirates at Dodger Stadium. MLB odds have L.A. as a substantial -290 favorite, while the total sits at 8.
My Pirates vs. Dodgers predictions are optimistic on the favorite, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Pirates vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Dodgers -1.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
There's not a single advantage the Pittsburgh Pirates possess in this matchup. That starts with left-hander Bailey Falter, who's analytically one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. The southpaw ranks in the 18th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and strikeout rate.
These woes are likely to continue against the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team Falter is 0-1 against through two career meetings with a fade-worthy 6.43 ERA. Meanwhile, right-hander Tyler Glasnow gets the ball for L.A.
Once again putting together a dominant campaign, Glasnow is 9-6 with a 3.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through 21 starts. His underlying metrics are even stronger as the right-hander boasts a 2.57 xERA and ranks in the 95th percentile in xBA and 96th percentile in strikeout rate.
He also dominated Pittsburgh in the lone career meeting, surrendering just one run on three hits with nine strikeouts through six innings of work. The Dodgers also boast the bullpen advantage as their relief staff outranks the Pirates in ERA and xFIP.
Finally, Los Angeles is the superior team at the dish as well. It paces Pittsburgh in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
Pirates vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers -1.5
Tyler Glasnow Over 8.5 strikeouts
Miguel Rojas Over 0.5 hits
If we're backing a large Dodgers victory, we'll need a strong performance from Glasnow. We can back him in the prop market, considering he ranks in the 87th percentile in whiff rate and 96th percentile in strikeout rate. He's coming off a 9-strikeout performance and is more than capable of doing so again.
We'll also need some hitting, and we can look to Miguel Rojas to help us out in that department. He boasts a .333 BA through nine career plate appearances against Falter and has recorded at least a hit in six of his past nine games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Dodgers odds
Pirates vs Dodgers live odds
Pirates vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (+105) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-125)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +230 | Los Angeles -280
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Pirates vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened as a -290 favorite and remain at that number at the time of writing.
- The widespread market action suggests that line will come down a little, but I still believe L.A. is the play due to all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 8 and also remains at that price.
- It's more likely this number moves to 8.5 rather than 7.5, so if you like the Over, you should strike now.
Pirates vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have won by 2+ runs in five of Glasnow’s past seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Dodgers.
Pirates vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet Pittsburgh, Sportsnet LA |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Bailey Falter (5-7, 3.95 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Tyler Glasnow (9-6, 3.54 ERA) |
Pirates vs Dodgers latest injuries
Pirates vs Dodgers weather
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