The Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the opening matchup of this three-game series at American Family Field. MLB odds list the total at 8.5.
My Pirates vs. Brewers predictions think that number is too low and that these offenses will pile up the runs.
Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, August 11.
Pirates vs Brewers prediction
Pirates vs Brewers best bet: Over 9 (+100)
The Milwaukee Brewers lineup is one of the hottest in baseball, ranking first in the league in nearly every major hitting category since the beginning of July.
On the season, Milwaukee ranks in the top four in runs per game, hits per game, batting average, and on-base percentage. That success at the plate is likely to continue against Pittsburgh Pirates left-hander Andrew Heaney.
Through 23 appearances, Heaney is 5-9 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even worse, as he owns a 5.42 expected ERA (xERA) and a .289 expected batting average (xBA).
Heaney also ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
The good news for Pittsburgh is that it should also have success at the plate against Jose Quintana. Through 98 combined plate appearances against the left-hander, the current Pirates roster boasts a .318 xBA, a .548 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and a .388 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).
Caesars QuickPick: Our Pirates vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
One of those Pirates hitters is Tommy Pham. Through 23 plate appearances against Quintana, Pham boasts a .401 xBA, an .820 xSLG and a .523 xwOBA.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s Andrew Vaughn has previously homered against Heaney. He also enters this game in good form, having hit five home runs and posting a .679 SLG over his past 14 games
Pirates vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +175 | Milwaukee -210
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-115) | Milwaukee -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Pirates vs Brewers trend
The over is 8-2 in Milwaukee’s past 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Brewers.
How to watch Pirates vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Monday, August 11, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SporstNet Pittsburgh |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Andrew Heaney (5-9, 4.77 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jose Quintana (9-4, 3.57 ERA) |
Pirates vs Brewers latest injuries
Pirates vs Brewers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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