The Cincinnati Reds welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to Great American Ballpark tonight, with Chase Burns taking the hill.
Behind their ace, my Phillies vs. Reds predictions and MLB picks are targeting Cincy to take the second game of this series.
Who will win Phillies vs Reds today: Reds moneyline (-131)
The Cincinnati Reds send the dominant Chase Burns to the mound this evening. The hard-throwing right-hander owns a 3.08 FIP across his last five outings, surrendering just 0.99 HR/9.
During that span, Burns has limited opponents to a 33.3% hard-hit rate. Opposing hitters are batting just .222 off his primary offering, the four-seam fastball, and his second-most-used offering — the slider — has been a real issue for several Phillies hitters, most notably Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
The Philadelphia Phillies are likely to go with an opener, and that's good news for the Reds. Philadelphia's bullpen sports a 4.87 FIP and 7.20 ERA across the last week. While Cincinnati isn't in great form offensively, it's an opportunity to jump on a Phillies relief corps giving up 1.35 HR/9 right now.
Burns deals, and the Reds do some damage off Philly's pen. I'll play this pick up to -150.
COVERS INTEL: The Phillies have been substantially worse offensively on the road, posting 78 wRC+ compared to 106 wRC+ at Citizens Bank Park. 
Phillies vs Reds Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-131)
Tonight's total is set quite high at 9.5 runs. The Phillies are not exactly thriving offensively on the road, and Burns' ability to keep opponents at bay is a clear strength for the Under. The Cincinnati bullpen has also been impressive lately.
Across the last week, they own a 3.63 FIP, and the pen hasn't allowed a single home run. That's promising against a Phillies team that's sixth in the big leagues in home runs.
While Philadelphia's relievers aren't pitching great, the Reds have just 74 wRC+ in their last six contests. I do expect them to score some runs behind Burns, but this will not be a high-scoring matchup.
I'll play this pick up to -150.
- ML/RL bets: 33-33, -2.97 units
- Over/Under bets: 36-29, +1.43 units
Phillies vs Reds weather
Conditions will be warm and relatively calm at Great American Ball Park tonight, with temperatures in the mid-80s at first pitch before falling into the upper 70s later. Winds will be very light at around 1-to-2 mph, while rain chances stay low. Overall, the weather should have minimal impact on the game.
Phillies vs Reds odds
- Moneyline: Phillies +119 | Reds -131
- Run line: Phillies +1.5 (-168) | Reds -1.5 (+146)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+131) | Under 9.5 (-131)
Phillies vs Reds trend
The Phillies have cashed the Under in 22 of their last 30 road games for +13.30 units and a 40% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Reds.
How to watch Phillies vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, July 8, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Bullpen Game |
| Reds starting pitcher | Chase Burns (10-1, 2.40 ERA) |
Phillies vs Reds latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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