Last week, a Philadelphia Phillies-Washington Nationals matchup was a battle between flawed-but-talented clubs that are looking to stay within striking distance of struggling division leader.
Fast forward seven days and it's now a Phillies team that's making a push... against a Nationals squad that has raised all the white flags following a massive trade deadline selloff.
Philly took the opener of this four-game set last night in spectacular fashion and are MLB betting home favorites tonight with their ace on the mound.
Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Nationals on August 3, with first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Phillies vs Nationals game info
• Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
• Date: Tuesday, August 3, 2021
• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCSP, MASN 2
Phillies vs Nationals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Phillies vs Nationals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zack Wheeler (8-6, 2.45 ERA): Wheeler has had a career season in 2021, making his first All-Star team and sitting fifth in the NL in ERA, eighth in WHIP, and leading the Senior Circuit in strikeouts. He had his worst month in July, with his ERA "only" at 3.24, but he remains an absolute workhorse, completing seven innings in four of his last six starts. He faced the Nats (pre-exodus version) last week, giving up three earned runs across seven innings.
Patrick Corbin (6-9, 5.78 ERA): As good as Wheeler's 2021 has been, Corbin's has been that bad. The veteran lefty opened the year with a disastrous April, then put up respectable numbers in May and June before again getting hammered in July, when he allowed 21 earned runs and 38 hits (seven home runs) in just 26 1-3 innings. While his signature slider has still been efficient (.193 opponent batting average), batters are crushing all of his other pitches — he has a .302 BAbip and a career-worst 20.2 percent of his fly balls allowed are home runs.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Rhys Hoskins 1B (Questionable), Andrew McCutchen OF (Out), Freddy Galvis 2B (Out).
Nationals: Alcides Escobar SS (Questionable), Alex Avila C (Out), Starlin Castro (Suspended), Will Harris RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nationals are 3-13 in their last 16 games as a home underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Nationals.
Run line pick
Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes, Josh Harrison, Brad Hand, Daniel Hudson, Jon Lester. That's the list of key players that were shipped out of DC at the MLB Trade Deadline, stripping a roster that was already sub-.500 down to bare bones.
The Nationals actually won their first post-deadline series but that was against the Cubs, who did an even better tank job last weekend. Washington almost took the opener of this current series against the Phillies, taking a 3-2 lead into the ninth before barfing up five runs in an eventual 7-5 defeat.
While it's just the first of many Ls to come for Washington as it plays out the fiddle this season, Philadelphia will happily take that win as it is fully in the playoff hunt.
The Phils are just 2.5 games behind the Mets for the NL East lead, and they were slight buyers at the deadline, adding some veteran pitching and infield depth. Tonight, however, the Phillies should be just fine with a player they've had all season long — All-Star Zack Wheeler — on the mound tonight.
Wheeler has been dealing all season, including a 3.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts in 23 1-3 innings (four starts) against the Nats this season — but that was when Washington had a major league lineup. Now, he faces a team that lacks any real danger outside of Juan Soto and Josh Bell... and is sending out Patrick Corbin to pitch.
The 32-year-old lefty was punished by any and all opponents last month, giving up 4+ earned runs and not getting past the sixth inning in four of five July starts. That includes facing these same Phillies last week and allowing four runs on eight hits (three home runs) across five innings.
The Phillies have a superior pitching advantage, a much better lineup, and they have all the motivation to win while Washington is ready for 2022. Philly is a big road favorite for a reason.
PREDICTION: Phillies -1.5 (-101)
Over/Under pick
We mentioned above that everyone, including the Phillies, has beaten up on Corbin over the last month... and we don't see any reason why there wouldn't be a repeat tonight.
The Phillies are leading the MLB in runs scored over the last 30 days, while sitting second in on-base percentage and third in OPS. Philadelphia has also been much better against southpaws, so we're fully expecting Corbin to get hung with an ugly, crooked number — and a depleted Nats bullpen will likely not provide much relief.
Working against the Over is Zack Wheeler facing a thinned-out Nationals lineup, but consider this: Washington was second in the MLB in runs scored, and first in hits and batting average, over the last 30 days — even with a number of exiled starters, the Nats still put the bat on the ball and make pitchers work.
Any offense the Nationals can generate is gravy on top, as we think Philadelphia could challenge a total of 8.0 by themselves.
PREDICTION: Over 8 (-115)
Phillies vs Nationals betting card
- Phillies -1.5 (-101)
- Over 8 (-115)
Picks made on 8/3/2021 at 10:13 a.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Phillies vs. Nationals picks, you could win $27.21 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on MLB odds?
You can bet on MLB odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB moneylines, runlines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB odds in your area.
