A pair of the best teams in the National League hit the field at Citizens Bank Park, with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the San Diego Padres on Monday, June 30.
Philly has ace Zach Wheeler hitting the bump, while San Diego will counter with Matt Waldron making his first start of the year. My Padres vs. Phillies predictions and top MLB picks are calling for Wheeler to lead the way to a convincing win in the City of Brotherly Love.
Padres vs Phillies prediction
My Padres vs Phillies best bet: Phillies -1.5 (-115 at Caesars)
⚾ Pick Analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies have a noticeable pitching advantage with Zack Wheeler toeing the rubber, and the San Diego Padres countering with Matt Waldron.
Wheeler has spun a tidy 2.55 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 2.64 xFIP, while Waldron is toeing the rubber for his first MLB start of the campaign after allowing five earned runs on seven hits across 2 2/3 frames in his latest minor-league tune-up. Waldron also posted an underwhelming 4.91 ERA, WHIP, and 4.32 xFIP across 146 2/3 frames last season.
The Phillies are also a superior offense against right-handed arms with a 10th-ranked wOBA, compared to the Friars checking in at 18th, and Wheeler has been tidy at Citizens Bank Park with a 2.39 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.
Additionally, I also value Philly winning 36 of their last 58 games (+7.85 units / 9% ROI) and sporting a 26-14 home record while ranking fourth in wOBA. San Diego is 20-24 and checks in at 22nd on the highway, after all.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Padres vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
🚀 SGP Analysis
Phillies masher Kyle Schwarber has teed off on righties to the tune of a .363 wOBA, .235 ISO, and .840 OPS, and he’s hit the Over in this market in seven of his past 10 games. So, I expect him to have a strong showing after Waldron allowed a below-average .338 wOBA to left-handed hitters last year.
Turning to the final leg of this SGP, Friars star Fernando Tatis Jr. boasts an equally impressive .379 wOBA, .224 ISO, and .872 OPS against right-handed pitchers, and he’s ripe for a breakout night at the dish.
The two-time Silver Slugger is reeling along a 5-for-42 stretch with just a pair of extra-base hits across his past 12 games, after all.
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Padres vs Phillies odds
Padres vs Phillies live odds
Padres vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +180 | Philadelphia -220
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-110) | Philadelphia -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Padres vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have cashed the moneyline in 36 of their last 58 games (+7.85 units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies.
How to watch Padres vs Phillies and game info
Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
Date | Monday, 6-30-2025 |
First pitch | 6:35 p.m. ET |
TV | MLB Network |
Padres starting pitcher | Matt Waldron (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (7-3, 2.45 ERA) |
Padres vs Phillies latest injuries
Padres vs Phillies weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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