Padres vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: More Offense Expected in Series Finale

The San Diego Padres will try to salvage a split of a four-game series when they visit the Philadelphia Phillies one more time on Sunday afternoon.

The Padres have lost the last two games and continue to fall further out of playoff contention by the day. The Phillies are fighting for a playoff berth, but are currently one game out of a wild card position, making every game critical for Philadelphia.

Both teams have been hitting the ball well in this series, which could make life harder for the starters this afternoon. I break it all down in my MLB betting picks below. 

Padres vs Phillies odds

Padres vs Phillies predictions

While neither team has lit up the world on offense this year, there’s no denying the amount of talent in these two lineups. Sure, the Phillies (4.55 runs per game) and Padres (4.48) are both scoring at a slightly below-average clip for MLB teams in 2023, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

San Diego’s numbers are depressed by Petco Park, one of the worst offensive environments in all of baseball. In reality, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and others are still elite weapons. It just doesn’t show up quite as well on the scoreboard when half of your games are played in a park which is awful for hitters.

That won’t be a problem on Sunday when the Padres visit Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies' home field is good for hitters all around but especially favors those who can hit for power. With five players in the San Diego lineup having double-digit homers already this year, you can expect the Padres to deliver.

As for the Phillies, they’ve been a slightly better offensive team at home, as you might expect. Philadelphia is scoring a more robust 4.70 runs per game at Citizens Bank. The Phillies lineup is also heating up in July, having scored an impressive 5.91 runs per game so far in July.

These trends have played out in the first three games of this series. Each of the first three has seen a total of at least 10 runs, and all three have cashed the Over. And while there’s a solid pitching matchup for Sunday afternoon’s finale, there are reasons to doubt that Seth Lugo and Zack Wheeler will do much to stop the onslaught of runs.

Wheeler hasn’t been bad in 2023, but his 4.05 ERA is surprisingly high considering he’s kept that number under 3.00 in each of the last three seasons. He’s especially struggled in his last three outings, giving up a total of 12 earned runs in just 16 1/3 innings pitched. He’s also given up a homer in each of those starts, a dangerous trend against a Padres lineup that can hit the long ball. 

Lugo has been solid in his return to a starting role with the Padres, posting a 3.39 ERA in 12 outings. However, he doesn’t tend to go far in games, averaging just 5.1 innings per start. He also benefits from the same Petco Park effects that the San Diego hitters deal with, making his numbers just a tad less impressive than they may seem.

Both pitchers may also struggle to stay in the game on a day when plenty of rain is expected, but there will be a concerted effort to get this game in if at all possible. That might mean long rain delays and unexpected pitching changes.

I see no reason to think that this will suddenly be a pitcher’s duel after we’ve watched these teams hit the ball all over the park in the first three games of this series. I’m taking the Over in this afternoon’s game.

My best bet: Over 9 (+100 at FanDuel)

Padres vs Phillies same-game parlay

Over 9 (+100)

Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 strikeouts (+110)

Seth Lugo Under 4.5 strikeouts (-138)

+406 at FanDuel

I’m expecting to see a lot of runs today, but I have some very specific reasons for thinking so. That game story plays right into today’s same-game parlay pick.

Of course, I’ll be starting by keeping my Over bet in play. These teams have gone above nine runs in all three games this series, and I expect that we’ll see the same kind of offensive output today.

Along with that, I’m picking Wheeler and Lugo to both end up Under their strikeout totals. My biggest reason for expecting this is the weather, which will not be favorable this afternoon in Philadelphia. With rain expected throughout the day, there may well be windows where these teams can play, but there could also be lengthy delays. 

That means a lot of value on the Under props for these pitchers, including their strikeout totals. When there’s every chance that Wheeler and Lugo could pitch a couple of innings and then get pulled after sitting for a couple of hours, I’m using that possibility to generate value in my SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Padres vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Phillies opened today’s game as a -147 home favorite. That number has moved a little further in Philadelphia’s favor since then, with the average line coming in somewhere around Phillies -155. The best odds out there are -150 on the Phillies and +139 on San Diego.

While the Phillies are virtually even for bettors on the moneyline this year, the Padres are a very different story. San Diego has been one of the most disappointing teams in all of MLB, and that’s reflected by a loss of more than 21 units on the moneyline so far in 2023.

Given the weather conditions, there’s a lot of uncertainty over what the pitching options will look like for both sides over the course of the afternoon. That’s making me shy away from playing the moneyline today, as while I think the Phillies are deserving of being a slight favorite, a lot depends on who ends up on the mound for the majority of the innings.

If I had to make a pick, the uncertainty pushes me towards San Diego and the plus money, but I’m staying off this market.

The total for this game opened at 9 and has remained steady there as of Sunday morning. There’s a little juice on the Under at most books, and you can get +100 on the Over at some sites, but nobody has moved off the flat 9 yet.

For the season, both teams have played below the number. The Under is 50-38 for San Diego, while it has also gone 46-37 when the Phillies play.

However, both lineups have been hitting well as of late, and this series has been a display of offense rather than pitching. With these lineups hitting up and questions over how the weather will impact the pitching matchup, I’m inclined to take the Over in today’s game.

Trend to know

The Phillies have hit the Over in five straight games, and the Over is 6-1-2 in the last nine Padres games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies

Padres vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.39 ERA): While Lugo was used as a starter early in his career with the Mets, he eventually transitions into a bullpen arm there. That changed when the Padres signed him as a free agent and gave him the opportunity to move back to being a full-time starter. The experiment has been successful so far in 2023, with Lugo providing solid innings, even if he doesn’t often go deep into games. Lugo allowed one earned run over six innings against the Angels in his last start.

Zack Wheeler (7-4, 4.05 ERA): For the first couple of months, Wheeler appeared to be on track to give the Phillies another excellent year at the top of the rotation. However, something has gone wrong for the 33-year-old as of late. His ERA jumped to 4.45 in five starts during June and is up to 5.73 in his first two outings in July. Last time out, Wheelers allowed three runs on seven hits over six innings against the Marlins.

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