The San Diego Padres went all-in at the trade deadline, but if they want to achieve their goals of winning a World Series, they’ll need the best version of Yu Darvish.
The veteran right-hander is coming off his best start of the season, but the Arizona Diamondbacks will provide an interesting test. And one D-back in particular has been a thorn in Darvish’s side.
My Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions are highlighted by a player prop and more MLB picks for this National League West showdown with first pitch in Phoenix scheduled for 9:40 pm ET on Tuesday, August 5.
Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Padres vs Diamondbacks best bet: Corbin Carroll Over 2.5 hits, runs, and RBI (+125 at BetMGM)
The San Diego Padres made some of the boldest moves at the trade deadline, but they still need their starting pitching to step up if they hope to compete with the other contenders in the National League.
That includes veteran Yu Darvish. The veteran right-hander has missed the majority of the season with inflammation in his throwing elbow and will be making just his sixth start since returning to the Padres’ rotation at the beginning of July.
It’s taken Darvish a while to knock the rust off, but he's coming off his best performance of the season, shutting out the Mets over seven innings on just two hits. However, a matchup with Corbin Carroll and the Arizona Diamondbacks could indicate a slight regression.
That’s because Ketel Marte, Alek Thomas, and most specifically, Corbin Carroll have great numbers against the Padres’ right-hander.
But let’s focus on Carroll. The two-time All-Star is a ridiculous 8-for-15 with two doubles and two dingers in his career vs. Darvish. That’s good for a .359 expected batting average and a .689 expected slugging.
Carroll has also been in a groove in the second half. He’s hitting .293 with a .907 OPS over the last 15 games. Carroll has also scored nine runs and driven in eight more.
That has me looking at his Hits, Runs, and RBIs prop, which is set at 2.5 for this matchup vs. Darvish. But it’s a number he’s gone Over three times in his last six games. And he totaled five when he last faced Darvish back on July 7. I love taking this shot at plus money.
Padres vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Corbin Carroll Over 2.5 H/R/R
Ryne Nelson Under 16.5 outs
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 H/R/R
Countering Darvish is Ryne Nelson. The 27-year-old right-hander has had an up-and-down season and enters this game ranked in the 43rd percentile in expected ERA. Like Darvish, a few Padres in particular have given him real problems in the past.
Nelson has also been a permanent starter for the D-backs for just the last two months. He averages 85.2 pitches per start, and with a tough matchup with the Padres, we’re putting Under 16.5 outs for Nelson in this same-game parlay. A number he’s stayed Under in five of his last 10 starts, including a June 13 meeting against the Padres.
One of his toughest outs has been Xander Bogaerts. The Padres infielder is 4-for-11 with two home runs in his career vs. Nelson. That’s good for a .370 expected batting average and a .935 expected slugging.
Let’s add Over 1.5 H/R/R for Bogaerts to this SGP as well.
Padres vs Diamondbacks odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks live odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Padres -135 | Diamondbacks +115
- Run line: Padres -1.5 (+115) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 | Under 9.0
Padres vs Diamondbacks trend
The Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games for +8.90 Units and a 58% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Padres vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Tuesday, 8-5-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SDPA, ARID |
| Padres starting pitcher | Yu Darvish (1-3, 6.46 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Ryne Nelson (6-3, 3.20 ERA) |
Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Padres vs Diamondbacks weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
