Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Neither starter in tonight's game will be in a good position to deliver top-shelf results, but Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez could be facing a more uphill battle. Our betting picks look at his early results and why they might not translate.

Apr 11, 2024 • 14:55 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Triston Casas Boston Red Sox MLB
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The Baltimore Orioles will look for the series sweep tonight at Fenway Park as they enter the getaway game as a -125 road favorite in a pitching matchup that will feature young right-hander Grayson Rodriguez vs. Boston Red Sox hurler Garrett Whitlock.

Coming off a pair of cupcake matchups to begin the year, fading the Orioles starter projects as the best avenue for beating the closing number. With a tough park and his command issues not behind him, getting 18 outs is looking like a tough task for Rodriguez.

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Orioles vs. Red Sox predictions for Thursday, April 11.

Orioles vs Red Sox prediction

My best bet
Grayson Rodriguez Under 17.5 outs (+105 at DraftKings)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

Covers’ MLB prop projections powered by THE BAT have Baltimore Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez recording just 15.5 outs on under 90 pitches. That's giving the Under one of the best +EV edges of the entire day. 

Rodriguez has faced the Pirates and Angels to begin the year and has recorded more than 17.5 outs in both starts but the Under is the sharper side today for a couple of reasons.

First, Fenway Park is the second-hardest setting for opposing pitchers. It’s not the best-hitting weather but the wind is pushing toward left field, which is always great for hitters.

Second, Rodriguez struggled with command last year, walking 42 batters across 122 innings. He's issued just three free passes over two starts this season, but I’m not so sure he's past those control issues. Control problems increase pitch count, which is the biggest thing to track when playing the outs market.

THE BAT projects 86 pitches and 1.7 walks as well as 2.31 earned runs for Rodriguez.

The Boston Red Sox lineup is healthy (minus Trevor Story, who is out for the year) and with the Baltimore offense having a great offensive matchup vs. Garrett Whitlock, there could be some long innings with Rodriguez sitting and watching.

The Baltimore bullpen looks to have all but one arm available today, which is always a good thing for a quicker leash, so I'm hitting the Under as one of the best +EV plays on today's slate. 

Orioles vs Red Sox same-game parlay

Grayson Rodriguez Under 17.5 outs

Garrett Whitlock Under 15.5 outs

Triston Casas Over 0.5 RBI

Neither pitcher projects to go deep and Whitlock is paying -170 to not get an out in the sixth inning, which is a great piece to boost these odds. The Boston offense hasn't needed to do too much thanks to its recent pitching, but with Rodriguez's walk issues in the pass, No.4 hitter Triston Casas should have some RBI opportunities. He knocked in a pair on Wednesday and has five RBI on the season. 

All pitcher Unders are projecting well tonight at Fenway. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Orioles vs Red Sox odds

Orioles vs Red Sox live odds

Orioles vs Red Sox opening odds

  • Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+145) | Boston +1.5 (-170)
  • Moneyline: Baltimore -110 | Boston -110
  • Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Orioles vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Despite a loaded offensive lineup, the Orioles rank 19th in wOBA and sit below the league average in wRC+ at 96. 
  • The Red Sox have been the best pitching team in baseball early this year ranking on top of the league in ERA (2.08) and K/9 (10.30). The starters are 5-2 SU over 12 games with a 1.42 ERA. 
  • Rodriguez allowed four runs (two earned) on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings during a 7-3 loss to the Red Sox last Sept. 10. He struck out six and walked two.
  • Whitlock has a 1.50 ERA and two saves in 11 games (one start) vs. the Orioles. He has a 26:4 K:BB rate over 24 innings vs. Baltimore.

Orioles vs Red Sox trend

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+1.40 Units / 43% ROI) . Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Red Sox

Orioles vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Thursday, 4-11-2024
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez
(2-0, 2.19 ERA)
Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock
(1-0, 0.96 ERA)

Orioles vs Red Sox latest injuries

Orioles vs Red Sox weather

Not intended for use in MA.
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