Orioles vs Rays Predictions, Picks, Odds: O's Put Forth Winning Effort Over Eflin

The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays continue a vitally important three-game series tonight in the Sunshine State. 

The Orioles beat the Rays 4-3 last night, taking the AL East lead in the process. The win was a significant moment for Baltimore, which had been trailing Tampa Bay in the standings all season. The Orioles had a 3-1 lead but nearly blew it, winning in extra innings.

The win was part of a hot streak for Baltimore, which has won eight of its last 10 games. The Rays, on the other hand, have lost seven of their previous 10.

Read on for my best bet, analysis of the MLB odds, and full MLB picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Rays on Friday, July 21.

Orioles vs Rays odds

Orioles vs Rays predictions

As a longtime fader of Kyle Bradish — who will take the mound for the Orioles tonight — I will break one of my cardinal rules. I am going to back Bradish, and I'm going to do so with my best bet. 

I'm ready to welcome Bradish into my heart. At least in this spot, with this matchup and this value. He's been much better lately, and the fade hasn't been very good. In his last two starts combined, he's given up a single run in over 13 innings of work. It came against solid bats, too, in the Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins. A deeper reason I like this play, though, is what is going on with the other side of the coin: The O's offense vs. Zach Eflin, who takes the mound for Tampa. 

I'm bullish on Baltimore in this division in the second half of the season, and I'm confident we will see a competitive AL East race down the stretch. That's because just like I'm bullish on the O's, I'm bearish on the Rays. They were always due for negative regression after an insane start to the season, and they haven't seen enough of it. In this matchup, Eflin is a ground ball-reliant pitcher facing a team that hits the sixth-fewest grounders in baseball. 

Though the O's aren't in the Top 5 of the fewest ground balls in the league, they are significantly close. Eflin has faced one team in the Top 5 of ground ball rate, and he was sensational against them when he gave up no runs to the Twins. That doesn't help our case a ton until you look deeper. 

Some of Eflin's worst performances this season have come against teams ranking in the Bottom 10 of ground ball rate. That includes the worst one of the entire season, which came against the Kansas City Royals. Unless you've been living under a rock, you know the Royals do hardly anything well. However, they only hit a few ground balls. They rank just behind the Orioles in that regard, and aided them that day when they plated five runs against Eflin. Something similar can take place here. 

Bradish is less of a story for me in this matchup because of how much this Rays offense has struggled post-All-Star break. Coming into last night, Tampa averaged the fewest number of runs over its previous three games (two) in the entire league. I'm not going to bank on them exploding here, and because of that, I don't think Baltimore will need to do a ton here.

With that in mind, the best value is backing Baltimore in the first five innings market. I priced it at +110 and saw considerable value at the current number. Grab the bargain tonight. 

My best bet: Orioles F5 moneyline (+138 at FanDuel)

Orioles vs Rays same-game parlay

Orioles F5 innings -0.5

Anthony Santander to record a hit

Christian Bethancourt to record a hit

+503 at FanDuel

This same-game parlay may not be the sexiest, but it effectively targets the weaknesses of each pitcher while pairing our best bet. In the process, it gives us considerable value and is worth a gamble.

We spent the entirety of our best bet talking about Eflin being ground ball-reliant and why we thought the Os were in decent shape to take advantage of that. What better way to target that aspect than with the Orioles player who hits the fewest ground balls? That is Anthony Santander. He's averaging a ground ball rate of just 32% and pairs it with a fly ball rate of 33%. We'll take him to grab a hit.

We'll also take Christian Bethancourt to do the same. At the heart of Bradish's issues this season is what batters have done to his four-seam fastball. He's allowed an average of over .350 against it, which is easily the worst of any pitch in the arsenal. That's an issue when it's a pitch you throw the second-most often.

Just like we took the player who hits the fewest ground balls above to target a weakness, we'll take the batter who hits fastballs the best. That man is Bethancourt. He's hit for an average of .325 against them this season, and we'll take him to get a hit here to round off things.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Orioles vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I see no need to expand my exposure on this game and double down with the full game moneyline, so I won't. I found more value in the first five innings and want to avoid complicating things by involving the bullpens.

The ironic thing is that Baltimore, when fully rested, may have a slight edge in its bullpen. But I would still like to avoid it. The Rays have a way of winning late, close games, and this one is likely to be one of those. Baltimore has been good this season, but Tampa Bay has been good at it for several seasons. That's why they are eighth overall in runs scored in the last three innings of the game, and have routinely been in the top half of baseball in that metric over the previous five years. I will avoid all that and stick with the thought that this is a difficult matchup for Eflin and that Baltimore will edge him out.

As for the total, I'll take a stab at the Under of 8 at -120 with a half unit. I mentioned the struggles of the Tampa Bay offense, and while this Baltimore offense can be a bit yo-yo, it doesn't do enough to push this one Over.

While the O's should have the upper hand over Eflin this evening, I don't think they'll explode on him. Eflin is a veteran and figures out ways, more often than not, to limit the damage. I expect nothing less in a crucial divisional game.

Trend to know

Baltimore has won eight of its last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Rays

Orioles vs Rays game info

Starting pitchers

Kyle Bradish (6-4, 3.06 ERA): Bradish;s ERA is likely a bit lucky. The metrics behind him are pretty telling, along with an expected ERA over 4.00. While he's not giving up an immense amount of barrels, Bradish has had an issue with the hard-hit ball with a rate in the Bottom 20% of baseball. It's been accompanied by a whiff rate that's only slightly better. Bradish has done an outstanding job of putting balls in the zone and not walking many batters. However, an expected slugging percentage of .418 says things may get worse. Bradish will enter Friday off one of his best starts of the season when he posted seven scoreless innings against the Miami Marlins.

Zach Eflin (10-5, 3.59 ERA): At age 29, Eflin is putting together one of the best seasons of his lengthy career and has looked like a steal of acquisition for the Rays. If the season ended today, Eflin would have career lows in actual ERA and expected ERA. Eflin hasn't been shut-down, but he's been relatively terrific, and the biggest weakness in his game is giving up too many barrels. He's been so successful by being a ground ball maestro with a rate of 52%, which is suitable for the high-end spectrum of the league. He came into this one off a seven-inning appearance against the Philadelphia Phillies, where he allowed two earned runs.

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