It's go time for the Chicago Cubs, who will welcome the Baltimore Orioles to town for a weekend series.
The Orioles arrive firmly out of the playoff picture and mostly as sellers at the deadline. Things couldn’t be more different for the Cubs, who are not only looking to make a push for the divisional crown, but also the pennant.
My Orioles vs. Cubs predictions like the Cubs to take care of business, and I'm highlighting a Nico Hoerner prop with my best bet.
My MLB picks for Friday, August 1 break it down below.
Orioles vs Cubs prediction
My Orioles vs Cubs best bet: Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at Caesars)
It’s been a good season for left-hander Trevor Rogers. The Baltimore Orioles’ man comes into this game with some pretty impressive metrics, like a barrel rate in the 80th percentile of baseball and a pitching run value in the 97th percentile of the sport. But there’s a little more to that than meets the eye.
Rogers has managed to get through the first half of the season with an ERA of 1.79 despite a hard-hit rate in the Bottom 1% of baseball and an expected ERA of 3.30. While that expected ERA is still impressive, it also screams that Rogers is due for some pretty huge regression. Against one of the best offenses in the sport, I’ll back it to start happening.
I’m fading him in the form of a prop and taking Nico Hoerner to go Over 1.5 total bases.
Hoerner is the only Chicago Cubs player who has an expected batting average and actual batting average in the Top 25 of baseball. Rogers is a strikeout-reliant pitcher, but Hoerner doesn’t strike out against the pitches he throws, with a 5% K-rate against the fastball and a similar rate against the changeup.
Hoerner ranks inside the Top 5 in both hard-hit rate and batting average against the changeup and the fastball, which make up over 60% of the arsenal Rogers throws.
Anyway you look at it, this is a great spot for Hoerner today.
Orioles vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 total bases
Kyle Tucker 1+ RBI
Almost everything I said about Hoerner above applies to Kyle Tucker here, except Tucker has more power.
He’ll also have the benefit of hitting behind Seiya Suzuki, who may be the best fastball hitter on the Cubs' roster. With that in mind, this number feels like a bargain.
Orioles vs Cubs odds
Orioles vs Cubs live odds
Orioles vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: BAL +125 | CHC -155
- Run line: BAL +1.5 (-180) | CHC -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Orioles vs Cubs trend
The Cubs have hit the moneyline in 62 of their last 104 games (+11.20 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Cubs.
How to watch Orioles vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Friday, 8-1-2025 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN2, Marquee Sports Network |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Trevor Rogers (4-1, 1.79 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Cade Horton (4-3, 3.67 ERA) |
Orioles vs Cubs latest injuries
Orioles vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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