Nationals vs Angels Predictions, Picks, Odds: Ohtani Leaves Washington Hitters Guessing

Following a 6-4 loss as a heavy favorite last night, the Los Angeles Angels will send Shohei Ohtani to stifle the weak offense of the Washington Nationals this evening at Angel Stadium.

With the home side sitting as a -300 favorite, bettors can still find value on the Halos in the prop market, and with Ohtani projected to go deep into this game, looking into his win markets might be the best bet.

Find out my MLB picks for the Nationals vs. Angels on April 11.

Nationals vs Angels odds

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Nationals vs Angels predictions

The Los Angeles Angels are deservedly heavy favorites tonight, and with Shohei Ohtani on the bump facing Josiah Gray, it’s a good time to look at secondary markets to find value in the Halos winning.

With the plethora of markets available to bettors it pays to look around, and getting Ohtani to record a win at -115 is my best bet in this lopsided pitching matchup.

For Ohtani to have a chance to record a win he needs to pitch at least five innings, and with a total outs market of 18.5, he’s certainly projected to go deep tonight.

It’s also a great matchup as the Nats possess little to no pop in their lineup with just five home runs on the year, and one of the worst ISO and SLG numbers to begin the season. It’s going to be hard for the Washington lineup to string hits together vs. a pitcher with a 28% K rate and insane numbers on his primary pitches.

Ohtani has used his sweeper and fastball 73.1% of the time this season (149 pitches) and has surrendered just two(!) hits. He has yet to allow a base hit with his fastball over 55 pitches.

Now for the other part of the prop bet. The Angels have to win, and facing Gray, they should be able to give Ohtani some early support. L.A.'s team total is currently at 5.5, and although Gray was decent in his last outing (vs. a weak Colorado team), he was annihilated by the Braves in his first start.

Nearly 25% of his fly balls have left the yard this year, and opponents hit over .300 vs. his fastball a season ago which he threw 39.2% of the time. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani both went 0-fer at the dish yesterday, but a bounce-back is likely against a pitcher with one of the worst horizontal and vertical movements on all four of his offerings.

With the Angels -300 favorites on the moneyline, it’s probable the Halos get a lead early and build on it while Ohtani goes possibly seven innings and creates just six outs for the bullpen. He's already hit the 100-pitch mark and faces one of the weakest offenses in baseball in his first start at home this season, so him for the win at -115 is a great pivot from a heavy favorite. 

My best bet: Shohei Ohtani to record the win (-115 at bet365)

Nationals vs Angels moneyline analysis

Coming off last night’s loss as -280 home favorites, the Angels have shortened up 10 points since opening on the moneyline tonight. Last night wasn’t a bad spot to take the Nationals as +230 as the pitching matchup was a lot closer than the odds were indicating. Today is a different story, however.

Ohtani is levels above Gray and this difference in starting pitching is worth more than 20-30 points that the moneyline is indicating compared to last night. Yesterday might have been too short on the home side, but if we’re comparing last night’s line to tonight, this evening’s matchup is certainly more one sided.

Ohtani has allowed just one run across two starts vs. the Mariners and Athletics — both on the road. He's had some walk issues but has struck out 18 batters, and has an impressive 33% CSW rate. He isn’t getting many batters to chase with a chase rate in the bottom 16% of the league, but facing the Nationals, who have one of the worst HR/FB rates and BABIP, will certainly help.

THE BAT is projecting 19.1 total outs, 7.56 strikeouts, and 2.05 earned runs for the L.A. starter. If he can hold the Nats to two runs, the offense should be able to support its pitcher vs. Gray.

The Washington starter was shelled in his opening start vs. the Braves (three home runs allowed). He doesn’t have a great matchup vs. a lineup that plated four runs yesterday with no help from Mike Trout and Ohtani and sits ninth in wRC+. THE BAT projects Gray to give up over three runs in just 15 outs today.    

Ultimately, this price is pretty steep, but with Ohtani keeping the Nats off the board, the first-five -1.5 is in play here at +105 along with the Angels' team total of 5.0 at -105 (Caesars). 

Nationals vs Angels Over/Under analysis

This total has seen a 10-point movement to the Under since opening and sits at even money for the Under 8.5. 

One thing I’ve noticed is the lack of home runs at Angel Stadium during night games. The dense marine air comes in at night and creates more drag, and it's no coincidence that the 23-run game the Angels had vs. the Blue Jays was during an afternoon game where conditions favored the batters.

Tonight, we’ll see 65-degree temperatures with slight winds blowing out. These are almost identical conditions to yesterday that pushed on a total of 10. There was just one home run hit in that game and it was a 400-foot wall scraper to center field. 

I can’t see the Nationals stringing together hits vs. Ohtani and really like their team total Under 3.0 at Caesars for -126. Washington is already one of the lowest-slugging teams in baseball with just five dingers, and its .327 BABIP is 14 points higher than last year’s highest mark of .313 — meaning its average should fall going forward. 

The Washington bullpen is a bottom-third unit in baseball, but with one-way scoring projected and the best offense likely only getting eight innings of offense, I’m agreeing with the market movement on the full-game Under 8.5. It’s not a play for me but don’t be surprised if we see one or fewer homers tonight. 

Nationals vs Angels game info

Nationals vs Angels betting preview

Starting pitchers

Josiah Gray (0-2, 4.91 ERA): Gray brings his near-5.00 ERA to Angel Stadium tonight but has also stranded 87% of his runners and has a 5.94 FIP. He’s allowed three home runs over 11 innings which includes a 10/3 K/BB ratio. Gray will have a hitter’s umpire in Alfonso Marquez and THE BAT is projecting 88 pitches, 15.2 outs, 4.98 strikeouts, and 3.30 earned runs. 

Shohei Ohtani (1-0, 0.75 ERA): Ohtani will make his third start of the season and has allowed just one earned run over 11 innings, which includes an 18/7 K/BB ratio. It’s a light-hitting Washington group for the righty who THE BAT projects for 19 outs and 7.56 strikeouts on 101 pitches. His chase rate is down which means there is still room for more punchouts.  

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