Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate, which include the White Sox at plus money on the road against the Braves.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 20.
MLB moneyline picks for August 20
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cardinalsvs  Reds |
-107 |
 Giantsvs  Guardians |
-191 |
 Blue Jaysvs  Rays |
-161 |
 Athleticsvs  Royals |
-137 |
 Bravesvs  White Sox |
+105 |
 Marinersvs  Brewers |
+119 |
 Yankeesvs  Orioles |
+105 |
 Nationalsvs  Rangers |
+146 |
 Angelsvs  Astros |
+158 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-20.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 20
Cardinals vs Reds: Cardinals (-107)
Cardinals win probability: 52%
The Reds may be coming off a 5-4 win over the Cardinals last night, but their offense has been pretty cold over the last six, 12, and 21 games. Over their last 12, Cincinnati owns just a 50 wRC+, 27.2% strikeout rate, and .549 OPS. Brady Singer takes the rubber tonight, coming off three starts in which he has posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, will send Michael McGreevy to the mound. He's turned things around over his last three starts, posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while allowing just a 6.12% barrel rate. St. Louis' offense has also been scorching hot over its last 12 games.
At -107, the Cardinals are a great look.
Giants vs Guardians: Guardians (-191)
Guardians win probability: 66%
The way Gavin Williams has been pitching lately makes it hard not to back the Guardians against a struggling Giants offense. Landen Roupp, meanwhile, has been pretty brutal in his most recent outings, making it even easier to lean on Williams in this matchup.
Neither the Giants' nor Guardians' bats have been particularly hot lately, but at least Cleveland isn't striking out at a high rate and has continued to draw walks.
It's heavy juice, but I trust the Guardians here.
Blue Jays vs Rays: Rays (-161)
Rays win probability: 61%
Blue Jays right-hander Shane Bieber has been allowing far too much hard contact to be trusted over his last three starts. The veteran owns a 4.94 xERA during that span, allowing a 51% hard-hit rate and nearly a 13% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
Rays left-hander Ian Seymour owns a 4.50 xERA over his last three starts, but he has held things down at home this season, posting a 3.32 xERA.
On top of that, the Rays' offense continues to hum despite Toronto finally sparking some life offensively. This is a full fade on Bieber.
Athletics vs Royals: Royals (-137)
Royals win probability: 57%
The Royals have been looking strong as of late, and with Randy Dobnak on the bump this evening, he should be able to hold down the Athletics' offense.
The right-hander does have some concerning underlying metrics, but he has done a phenomenal job limiting hard contact, allowing us to overlook his 4.03 xERA over his last three starts.
Plus, the Royals own a .338 wOBA, 116 wRC+, and .759 OPS over their last six games, making them worth paying the juice for this evening.
Braves vs White Sox: White Sox (-103)
White Sox win probability: 50%
Mariners vs Brewers: Mariners (+119)
Mariners win probability: 45%
After nearly blowing a 7-0 lead last night, the Mariners still came out on top, beating the Brewers 7-5. Tonight, they find themselves as +119 underdogs against southpaw Robert Gasser, who owns a 5.29 xERA over his last three outings.
Seattle sends George Kirby to the mound, and he has been very solid over his last three despite his strikeout and walk rates looking nearly identical. Kirby has done a great job limiting hard contact, unlike Gasser, who has allowed nearly a 50% hard-hit rate and 10.2% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
Despite the near choke last night, the Mariners as an underdog are the more appealing look here.
Yankees vs Orioles: Orioles (+105)
Orioles win probability: 47%
Despite the Yankees managing to come out on top game after game with lifeless offensive numbers, the Orioles are the more attractive play as a home underdog.
Gerrit Cole takes the mound tonight for New York and has looked lights out, but there is a slight concern with how much hard contact he has been allowing. That could come back to bite him against a red-hot Orioles offense that should be able to get on top of his offerings.
Take the hungry dog!
Nationals vs Rangers: Nationals (+146)
Nationals win probability: 40%
Simple and sweet.
Both lineups are ice cold, while one team sends out a pitcher going through a rough patch at the moment. That team is the Texas Rangers. Jacob deGrom has looked pretty bad over his last five starts, posting a 6.30 ERA and 1.95 WHIP while allowing a 52.38% hard-hit rate and 9.52% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
The Nationals at nearly +150 are an enticing look.
Angels vs Astros: Angels (+158)
Angels win probability: 38%
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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