One of the smallest slates we’ve endured all season, just five games to sweat out and have a little fun with. That usually means fewer options, but it also means the edges stand out a little more.
So, without further ado, here are today’s MLB moneyline predictions as we dive into the tiny slate with my MLB picks for Thursday, July 23.
MLB moneyline picks for July 23
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Padresvs  Braves |
-233 |
 Twinsvs  Guardians |
+130 |
 Raysvs  Blue Jays |
+102 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Cardinals |
+111 |
 Royalsvs  Tigers |
+190 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-23.
Trade on the MLB at Polymarket!
Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code 'COVERS' (on your mobile app only) and get a $50 trading bonus after you deposit $50 to trade on any other event contracts — including MLB moneylines!
*Eligible locations only
Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 23
Padres vs Braves: Braves (-233)
Braves win probability: 70%
Take the Atlanta Braves on the run line here. With Griffin Canning on the mound this afternoon, Atlanta should have plenty of success at the dish.
Canning enters as one of the lowest rated pitchers on this small slate, per Batters-Box, while the Braves own one of the highest rated offenses of the day. The San Diego Padres right hander has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last five outings, while allowing a 45.45% hard hit rate.
Chris Sale has been nails all season. At home, he owns a 1.35 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a 25.23% strikeout rate, giving Atlanta a sizable edge on the mound.
Twins vs Guardians: Twins (+130)
Twins win probability: 44%
Are we finally watching Taj Bradley put it all together?
The Minnesota Twins right hander owns a 3.19 ERA, 2.77 xERA, 1.10 WHIP, and a 32% strikeout rate over his last five starts. We've always known he can rack up strikeouts, but limiting runs has been the biggest question.
With Cleveland Guardians right hander Gavin Williams carrying a 5.09 ERA over his last three starts, I think it's worth taking a shot on the Twins at +130.
Rays vs Blue Jays: Rays (+102)
Rays win probability: 50%
Give me the Tampa Bay Rays as a dog against the most lifeless team in baseball. Please, give me them at plus money.
The Toronto Blue Jays own a 43 wRC+ over their last six games, a 76 over their last 12, and a 67 over their last 21. Their offense is nonexistent. Meanwhile, the Rays have posted a 124 wRC+, .342 wOBA, and .780 OPS across their last 21 games.
Sure, Ian Seymour has not been the most sustainable arm in the Rays rotation, but you're going to tell me Shane Bieber, who owns a 5.70 ERA, 5.35 xERA, and 1.73 WHIP across his last five starts, is the better option?
Rays.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals: Diamondbacks (+111)
Diamondbacks win probability: 48%
Another misprice in my opinion.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are sitting at +111 against a St. Louis Cardinals team that owns a 69 wRC+, .267 wOBA, and .580 OPS over its last six games. Meanwhile, Arizona's offense is finally coming alive, posting a 151 wRC+, .390 wOBA, and .903 OPS over that same span.
What's even more impressive is how well Brandon Pfaadt has been throwing the ball lately. Over his last five starts, he owns a 2.86 ERA, 2.75 xERA, and 1.14 WHIP. On the other side, Michael McGreevy has been solid, but is this Cardinals offense really going to give him enough support tonight?
Give me the Diamondbacks at plus money.
Royals vs Tigers: Royals (+190)
Royals win probability: 34%
I am not the biggest fan of the 2026 Kansas City Royals, but they are clearly seeing the ball much better over their last few games than the Detroit Tigers. I think getting them at +190 is worth the squeeze on a team that owns a .762 OPS, 115 wRC+, and a 42% hard hit rate across its last 12 games.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have posted a 100 wRC+, .311 wOBA, and a 24% strikeout rate over their last six games.
Sure, Tigers right hander Troy Melton has been great, and Randy Dobnak's underlying metrics point toward some serious regression, but at +190, I think the Royals are worth a sprinkle.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
