We have a 15-game MLB slate for today that will surely keep us interested throughout the day.
Our Sunday MLB moneyline card is filled with solid plus-money markets, and a few short favorites that we will attack.
Read on for our MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, July 26.
MLB moneyline picks for July 26
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Guardiansvs  Rays |
-127 |
 Blue Jaysvs  Red Sox |
-127 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Nationals |
-117 |
 Bravesvs  Orioles |
-108 |
 Cubsvs  Pirates |
+122 |
 Dodgersvs  Mets |
+150 |
 Royalsvs  Tigers |
+156 |
 Padresvs  Marlins |
+117 |
 Astrosvs  White Sox |
-100 |
 Rockiesvs  Brewers |
+257 |
 Athleticsvs  Twins |
+144 |
 Redsvs  Cardinals |
+117 |
 Marinersvs  Rangers |
-104 |
 Angelsvs  Giants |
-122 |
 Yankeesvs  Phillies |
-133 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-26.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 26
Guardians vs Rays: Tampa Bay Rays (-127)
Rays win probability: 56%
Drew Rasmussen provides a steady baseline, though Parker Messick starting for Cleveland brings some variance. Still, Tampa Bay's pitching metrics over the last two weeks stand among the league’s elite, featuring a 3.37 xFIP and a 20 percent K-BB rate.
Cleveland holds the offensive edge, but Tampa’s late-inning bullpen depth at home creates solid value.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox: Boston Red Sox (-127)
Red Sox win probability: 56%
Kevin Gausman always brings brand recognition, but Toronto’s lineup has hit a massive slump, producing a meager 69 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Boston’s bullpen is firing on all cylinders with a slate-best 1.51 ERA.
Questioning Boston's starter Payton Tolle being in the rotation is reasonable, but Toronto’s bats are currently too cold to trust on the road.
Diamondbacks vs Nationals: Arizona Diamondbacks (-117)
Diamondbacks win probability: 54%
Arizona’s offense is flat-out raking right now, posting a dominant 136 wRC+ and a .504 slugging percentage over the last fortnight. Miles Mikolas sits on the other side with a bloated 5.01 xFIP and low strikeout output.
At short road odds, backing Arizona’s bats offers tremendous value.
Braves vs Orioles: Baltimore Orioles (-108)
Orioles win probability: 52%
Reynaldo Lopez usually draws heavy betting interest, but Atlanta’s overall pitching has shown vulnerabilities lately with a 4.28 xFIP. Meanwhile, Baltimore quietly holds a sharp 3.73 SIERA over the past two weeks.
Taking the Orioles as narrow home favorites at Camden Yards is a solid situational angle that must be exploited.
Cubs vs Pirates: Chicago Cubs (+122)
Cubs win probability: 45%
Pittsburgh holds the home-field advantage, but the matchup between Jameson Taillon and Braxton Ashcraft remains tight. Chicago’s underlying offensive production (118 wRC+ vs. 100 wRC+) and bullpen metrics carry the overall statistical advantage.
Grabbing the Cubs at a plus-money price on the road provides strong value.
Dodgers vs Mets: New York Mets (+150)
Mets win probability: 40%
Emmet Sheehan versus Freddy Peralta makes for an intriguing matchup, but the prediction markets offer an appealing price tag for the home team. New York’s bullpen actually out-grades Los Angeles over the last two weeks in both ERA- and SIERA.
Backing the Mets at +150 delivers solid value.
Royals vs Tigers: Kansas City Royals (+156)
Royals win probability: 39%
Framber Valdez on the bump gives Detroit a notable edge, but the heavy home market price opens up opportunity on the visitor. Kansas City’s offense has struggled lately, yet Valdez is occasionally prone to control hiccups.
At a generous +156 payout, taking a shot on the road underdog makes sense.
Padres vs Marlins: San Diego Padres (+117)
Padres win probability: 46%
Miami enters as a surprising home favorite despite a lineup-wide offensive drought, managing just a 70 wRC+ over the last 14 days. San Diego continues to produce high-level contact, posting a 134 wRC+ and .475 slugging mark.
Getting the Padres at plus-money with Walker Buehler pitching is arguably the top value spot on the card.
Astros vs White Sox: Houston Astros (-100)
Astros win probability: 50%
This matchup sits at flat pick 'em odds on the board. Houston’s bullpen leads the entire slate with an elite 23.4 percent K-BB rate over the last two weeks.
Backing Ronel Blanco and the Astros at even money against a struggling White Sox lineup (85 wRC+) is a strong position.
Rockies vs Brewers: Colorado Rockies (+257)
Rockies win probability: 28%
Milwaukee commands massive home chalk in this spot. Colorado’s offense remains limited with a 74 wRC+, but Milwaukee’s bullpen has shown command issues with elevated walk rates, and Jacob Misiorowski can occasionally struggle with location.
At a massive +257 payout, targeting the high-variance road underdog is the sharp play.
Athletics vs Twins: Athletics (+144)
Athletics win probability: 41%
Joe Ryan is always tough to beat at Target Field, but Minnesota carries a heavy market premium price. The Athletics' lineup has quietly put together respectable power numbers over the last fortnight.
Fading the inflated line on the home favorite and taking the A's at +144 offers a solid risk-reward play today.
Reds vs Cardinals: Cincinnati Reds (+117)
Reds win probability: 46%
Busch Stadium is always a tough venue, but St. Louis ranks dead-last in offensive production over the past two weeks with a painful 60 wRC+. Cincinnati brings significantly more isolated power with a .231 ISO.
Backing Andrew Abbott and the Reds as road underdog is where the value lies today.
Mariners vs Rangers: Seattle Mariners (-104)
Mariners win probability: 51%
Betting against Jacob deGrom requires caution, but Texas’s overall bullpen metrics have cratered recently, sitting at a 166 ERA and 5.15 xFIP. Seattle’s pitching group remains far more reliable with Logan Gilbert taking the ball.
Getting Seattle near pick 'em odds (-104) offers strong value.
Angels vs Giants: San Francisco Giants (-122)
Giants win probability: 55%
An unannounced starter for San Francisco adds intrigue, but the Angels' lineup remains stagnant, posting an 86 wRC+ and a lightweight .099 ISO over two weeks. San Francisco’s bullpen boasts a 3.92 SIERRA across the past 14 days, and at -122, the park environment and bullpen depth heavily favor the home side.
Yankees vs Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies (-133)
Phillies win probability: 57%
In a prime-time national TV slot, Will Warren starting for New York leaves the door open for Philadelphia, particularly with the Yankees hitting just .210 over their last 14 games. Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies bullpen carry a sharp 3.18 ERA.
At -133, backing the home club is a great play to close out Sunday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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