As we put that five-game Thursday slate behind us, a full Friday slate is here. This evening, I am loving the underdog market, so let's dive in!
Here are today's MLB moneyline predictions as we break down a full slate of MLB picks for Friday, July 24, starring the Atlanta Braves.
MLB moneyline picks for July 24
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Rockiesvs  Brewers |
+223 |
 Royalsvs  Tigers |
+264 |
 Cubsvs  Pirates |
+108 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Nationals |
+111 |
 Yankeesvs  Phillies |
-125 |
 Bravesvs  Orioles |
+106 |
 Dodgersvs  Mets |
-133 |
 Guardiansvs  Rays |
-127 |
 Padresvs  Marlins |
+125 |
 Blue Jaysvs  Red Sox |
-117 |
 Astrosvs  White Sox |
+125 |
 Marinersvs  Rangers |
+108 |
 Athleticsvs  Twins |
+130 |
 Redsvs  Cardinals |
-147 |
 Angelsvs  Giants |
+153 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-24.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 24
Rockies vs Brewers: Rockies (+223)
Rockies win probability: 31%
Are you really going to lay -228 with a Brewers offense that has an 87 wRC+, a 25% strikeout rate, and just a 5.8% barrel rate over its last six games?
Meanwhile, the Rockies own a 41% hard-hit rate, a 19.6% strikeout rate, and a .175 ISO over their last six.
Sure, Tomoyuki Sugano isn't the sexiest pitcher to put your money on, but at +223, it may be worth a sprinkle.
Royals vs Tigers: Royals (+264)
Royals win probability: 28%
Are you really paying -270 just because Tarik Skubal is on the mound? You shouldn't.
The Royals' offense is finally starting to heat up, posting a 115 wRC+, a .336 wOBA, and a .762 OPS over its last 12 games.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have a 25.6% strikeout rate, a 35% hard-hit rate, and a 104 wRC+ over that same stretch.
Give me the Royals.
Cubs vs Pirates: Cubs (+108)
Cubs win probability: 48%
Give me another underdog!
Sure, Jared Jones has been nails over his last few starts, but the Pirates' offense has gone cold lately. Meanwhile, the Cubs have posted a 130 wRC+, a .360 wOBA, and an .809 OPS over their last six games.
Matthew Boyd has been a bit shaky on the road, but over his last three starts, he's posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and just a 5.56% walk rate.
If the Cubs' offense can get to Jones while Boyd continues pitching at this level, I think they come out on top.
Diamondbacks vs Nationals: Nationals (+111)
Nationals win probability: 48%
You could not convince me to back the Diamondbacks when one of the most efficient offenses in baseball is an underdog.
While Arizona has started to heat up over the past week, Washington has been rolling for more than a month. On top of that, Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 4.91 xERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season, and he's carrying a 6.52 ERA over his last three starts.
Yankees vs Phillies: Phillies (-125)
Phillies win probability: 56%
Sure, Cam Schlittler is on the mound for the Yankees, but how are they going to score runs? Over their last 21 games, New York has posted a 74 wRC+, .281 wOBA, and .634 OPS.
Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo takes the ball for the Phillies, carrying a 0.69 ERA, 1.42 xERA, and 0.61 WHIP across his last three starts.
The Phillies offense has not been much better, but I believe Schlittler is due for some regression over his next few outings, which gives Philadelphia the edge in this matchup.
Braves vs Orioles: Braves (+106)
Braves win probability: 48%
The underdog leans keep rolling!
Trevor Rogers takes the mound for the Orioles this evening, and while he has looked excellent lately, his underlying metrics point toward regression.
Over his last three starts, Rogers owns a 1.04 ERA, but his expected ERA sits at 4.26. His strikeout rate has been low, his walk rate has been a bit elevated, and the left-hander is allowing nearly 44% hard contact to opposing hitters.
Grant Holmes gets the ball for the Braves and has been sharp over his last five starts, posting a 1.90 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Atlanta's offense has also started to heat up, making the Braves a very appealing underdog in this spot.
Dodgers vs Mets: Dodgers (-133)
Dodgers win probability: 57%
God, this is gross. Roki Sasaki versus Sean Manaea is not exactly a pitching matchup that inspires confidence, so expect some fireworks. Even so, I'm rolling with the Dodgers here.
Sasaki has been shaky all season, but Los Angeles still has the superior lineup and bullpen. In a matchup like this, I'll trust the better team overall.
Guardians vs Rays: Rays (-130)
Rays win probability: 56%
This should be a solid matchup based on how well both offenses have been swinging the bats lately, but I think the Rays come out on top this evening.
The biggest reason is Joey Cantillo. While his recent results may not look terrible, the underlying metrics suggest regression is on the horizon.
Across his last three starts, he has allowed a 44% hard-hit rate, a .463 BABIP, and owns a 1.80 WHIP. I think those numbers catch up to him tonight, giving Tampa Bay the edge.
Padres vs Marlins: Padres (+125)
Padres win probability: 44%
I find it difficult to back an offense that owns a 70 wRC+, .268 wOBA, and .602 OPS over its last six games, especially when the opposing team has posted a 167 wRC+, .406 wOBA, and .944 OPS over that same stretch. I want the Padres here.
German Marquez has been a liability for much of the season, but if he can simply be serviceable against this ice-cold Marlins offense, the Padres should be in a good spot against Ryan Gusto.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-117)
Red Sox win probability: 54%
It's the Red Sox or nothing here.
The Blue Jays remain one of the most lifeless offenses in baseball, posting just a 67 wRC+, .266 wOBA, and .115 ISO over their last 21 games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been one of the hottest teams in the league during that same stretch.
Pay the juice.
Astros vs White Sox: Astros (+125)
Astros win probability: 44%
With Davis Martin's recent struggles on the mound and how cold the White Sox have been at the plate, even after coming off a series win, I want no part of them here.
The Astros offense has been humming, and if they can get to Martin early, I trust Spencer Arrighetti to keep Chicago's ice-cold lineup in check.
Mariners vs Rangers: Rangers (+108)
Rangers win probability: 48%
The Mariners can be everyone's AL sleeper all they want, but they still own an 81 wRC+, .283 wOBA, and .623 OPS over their last six games. Those numbers have remained virtually unchanged across their last 21 games.
On the other side, the Rangers offense is starting to heat up, posting a 118 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .770 OPS over that same 21-game stretch.
I am willing to trust MacKenzie Gore here despite his ugly 7.09 ERA over his last five starts. His underlying metrics tell a much different story, as he owns a 3.11 xERA during that span.
Athletics vs Twins: Athletics (+130)
Athletics win probability: 44%
With Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews taking the mound, I want the Athletics. Over his last three starts, Matthews owns a 10.54 ERA, 5.86 xERA, and 2.19 WHIP, making him one of the easiest pitchers to fade on the slate.
Jacob Lopez has not been much better in terms of results for the Athletics, but his underlying numbers are far more encouraging. He owns a 2.78 xERA over his last three starts, giving me more confidence in Oakland to come away with the win.
The Athletics offense has been heating up, while the Twins have been cooling down. Give me the A's!
Reds vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-147)
Cardinals win probability: 60%
Your mom's new favorite country singer, Rhett Lowder, takes the bump for the Reds this evening while carrying a 9.64 ERA, 4.81 xERA, and 2.36 WHIP over his last five starts. Not to mention, he is allowing a 43% hard-hit rate and has posted an extremely high .481 BABIP during that stretch.
Even with the Cardinals struggling over the past week, I think this is a clear bounce-back spot for them.
Angels vs Giants: Angels (+153)
Angels win probability: 40%
Holy gross. Both starters this evening are carrying ERAs above 8.00 over their last three starts, while both offenses have been completely frozen across their last 12 games.
Give me the underdog here. I am not paying $1.56 for a struggling arm paired with a struggling offense.
Do not pay the juice. Take the dog.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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