MLB public betting, line movement, sharp money October 23

Oct 24, 2020 |
MLB public betting, line movement, sharp money October 23
Brandon Lowe rediscovered his home run stroke in Game 2, launching two long balls to help the Rays even up the World Series. Tampa Bay opened as a +140 underdog for Friday's pivotal Game 3.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Brandon Lowe rediscovered his home run stroke in Game 2, launching two long balls to help the Rays even up the World Series. Tampa Bay opened as a +140 underdog for Friday's pivotal Game 3.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

MLB betting odds are posted and drawing action for Friday night’s Game 3 of the World Series at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. With the series knotted up, both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays look to gain an edge in the Fall Classic.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s Game 3 and the updated World Series odds. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

MLB line movement 

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET FRIDAY: With first pitch coming up, FanDuel is at Dodgers -150/Rays +130, after opening Los Angeles -156 and peaking at -160, with a low point of Dodgers -148. The total is stuck at 7.5, though the Under is currently -120.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Los Angeles opened -155 and slowly crept down to -145 earlier today at The SuperBook at Westgate, with the Rays +135. The total opened at 8 but dipped to 7.5 early Thursday morning and remains there this evening.

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: BetMGM's New Jersey hub opened at Dodgers -155 and dialed down a notch to -150, with the Rays +135. The total remains at 7.5, though the opener had the Over at -120, and the Under is now -120.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: FanDuel opened Game 3 at Dodgers -165/Rays +140, and the line is now down to -148/+125. The total is stable at 7.5, though the Over opened at -118 and is now even money, with the Under -120.

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Tampa Bay staked itself to a 5-1 lead by the middle of the fifth inning in Game 2 Thursday, then held on for a 6-4 victory over Los Angeles to tie the best-of-seven World Series at a game apiece. DraftKings opened Game 3 at Dodgers -165/Rays +140 overnight Wednesday into Thursday, and there was no movement by Thursday afternoon.

The total opened at 7.5 and was also stable Thursday for Friday’s 8:08 p.m. ET clash.

 

MLB sharp money

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET FRIDAY: As has definitely been the case at other books, it appears FanDuel is seeing sharp play on the Under tonight. The total of 7.5 is seeing 71 percent of tickets on the Over, but 57 percent of money on the Under.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: "We are seeing sharp money on the Under, on both the game and the first five innings," SuperBook manager/oddsmaker Eric Osterman said, noting the first five innings total is 3.5.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: It's apparent that DraftKings is seeing some respected play on the Under for tonight's game. As noted above, Under 7.5 is priced at -120, but it's drawing just 21 percent of bets and 23 percent of money.

MLB public betting

UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Ticket count is split right down the middle at FanDuel, but the Dodgers are attracting 75 percent of cash on the moneyline. Additionally, Dodgers -1.5 (+114) on the runline is a popular option, with tickets and money running about 3/1 on Los Angeles. 

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: "We're getting some two-way action on the game, but we're seeing a bit more money on the Rays," The SuperBook's Osterman said. "We need the Dodgers and the Over."

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The public is showing up for the Dodgers at BetMGM. Although ticket count is close, with Los Angeles landing 54 percent of bets, 77 percent of moneyline cash is on the Dodgers. And on the total, though the Under is -120, 72 percent of tickets/62 percent of dollars are on the Over.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: DraftKings continues to see two-way action, but over the past 24 hours, the splits flipped to favor the Dodgers. Los Angeles is now attracting 53 percent of tickets and 56 percent of cash on the moneyline. And the public is definitely on Over 7.5, which is landing 79 percent of bets and 77 percent of money wagered on the total.

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With literally no movement on the moneyline so far at DraftKings, it’s clear that Thursday action is light, still more than 24 hours out from first pitch. That said, as was the case in Games 1 and 2, bettors are leaning toward Tampa Bay. The Rays are attracting 57 percent of early bets and 60 percent of early money.

On the total at DraftKings, there’s much stronger consensus early on, with 86 percent of tickets and 89 percent of money on Over 7.5.

Covers Consensus also favors the Rays, with 54 percent of early picks on Tampa Bay, and the Over is also drawing 54 percent of early picks, as of Thursday afternoon.

Odds to win the World Series

With the early back-and-forth game results, the price to win the World Series has also swung back and forth. Prior to Game 1, The SuperBook had the Dodgers -210 and the Rays +180. After L.A.’s Game 1 win, the price shifted to Dodgers -410/Rays +340.

Now, with the World Series tied at 1, The SuperBook is practically back at the pre-Game 1 number, with the Dodgers -200 and the Rays +175.

“The Rays are awesome for us,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said prior to Game 1. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

Where can I bet MLB odds?

Many online books and casinos offer bets on baseball odds and props. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live.

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