Thursday has arrived, which means one of two things: the weekend starts today if we put together a banger of a card, or tomorrow is Friday. Either way, we're winning.
This evening, I have a mix of familiar faces and a few newcomers ready to help us kick off the weekend a little early. Let's cash some tickets and get a head start on the fun.
Read on for our MLB player props and MLB picks for Thursday, June 4.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | +103 |
 Freddie Freeman |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | +101 |
 Ryne Nelson |
Over 5.5 Hits Allowed | -133 |
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+103)
I have to be on Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez today. Sure, you see me write about him daily, and you're probably wishing I'd back someone new, BUT I will never shy away from a mouthwatering matchup.
This evening, the big fella draws Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Jared Jones, who made his first start in nearly two years last week and was completely shelled, allowing five runs on seven hits, including two home runs, across 4.1 innings against the Minnesota Twins. Try comparing Byron Buxton to Alvarez, you can't.
The Astros slugger not only owns the second-highest rating on Batters-Box tonight, but he also has 100% arsenal coverage against Jones' entire pitch mix. On top of that, Alvarez has posted a .504 wOBA and a 35.71% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
The sample size on the Pirates starter is far too small to draw many meaningful conclusions, but taking on the scariest bat in baseball while he's this hot feels like a tall task for the young righty. I expect fireworks tonight, or Alvarez gets pitched around and walked a ton. I'm betting on the fireworks.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FS1
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+101)
Nothing like sprinkling on a guy to do a little bit of everything, and that’s exactly what I’m doing with Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman this evening. I fully advocate for his 2+ total bases prop at plus money, but I’m also dabbling in his double and home run props as well.
Despite drawing only a Strong rating in Batters-Box’s default model, Freeman carries an elite rating in the current season timeframe. In 130 Strong-rated spots over the last three years, the Dodgers slugger has cleared this prop 52.31% of the time.
In 56 Strong-rated road spots, that number climbs to 55.36%, while he’s gone yard in 25% of those games.
On top of that, Freeman owns 100% arsenal coverage this evening against Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson. Nelson carries the worst pitcher rating in both timeframes, posting poor marks in matchup ISO, hard-contact rate, strikeout percentage, and ground-ball rate.
Against left-handed hitters this season, he has had his hands full, allowing a 70.2% elevation rate (fly balls + line drives), a 10.5% barrel rate, and a 5.16 xFIP.
With Freeman seeing the ball extremely well lately, I think grabbing this prop at plus money is the play. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he owns a .487 wOBA and 220 wRC+ while making hard contact 50% of the time.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ARID, SNLA
Ryne Nelson Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-133)
Sticking with this matchup, the Dodgers have five elite-rated bats in the current season ratings on Batters-Box. Because of that, I think backing the entire offense and fading Ryne Nelson is the move.
Nelson's hits allowed prop is set at 5.5, with the over priced at -133.
In 37 poorly rated matchups, Nelson has allowed 5+ hits 51.35% of the time. In a smaller sample of 16 poorly rated home matchups, he has allowed 5+ hits in 50% of starts, 6+ hits in 37.5%, and 7+ hits in 31.25%.
The Dodgers are seeing the ball extremely well this season. Over their last 12 games, they rank first in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and ISO. They also sit inside the top six in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and fly-ball rate.
Even with Shohei Ohtani getting the day off, we're simply asking the rest of the Monstars of LA to step up, and I don't think that's asking much.
So, if you're looking for an alternative prop rather than throwing a dart at one of the Dodgers' sluggers to boom at the dish, this is a great way to attack the matchup.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ARID, SNLA
- Prop picks: 184-319-29, +5.00 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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