Two teams headed in opposite directions will face off on Saturday as the Philadelphia Phillies host the reeling New York Mets.
The Phillies have won 14 of their last 18 games, including a 5-1 win over New York on Friday. Meanwhile, the Mets have lost 14 of 18, falling seven games below .500 after a strong start to the season.
New York will benefit from a potentially favorable pitching matchup on Saturday, as three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer takes the mound. Can Scherzer turn things around for the Mets, or will Philadelphia continue to roll? I’ll discuss that in my free MLB picks for the Mets vs. Phillies on June 24.
Mets vs Phillies odds
Mets vs Phillies predictions
At age 38, Max Scherzer seems to be showing signs of aging this year. Unlike his stellar performance in 2022, he’s been inconsistent for the New York Mets — posting an ERA of 4.04 in his first 64 2/3 innings of work.
However, there have been signs of improvement for the veteran righty. Scherzer is coming off perhaps his best start of the year on Monday, where he allowed just one run on four hits over eight innings in a win over the Houston Astros. Scherzer struck out eight batters in the winning effort.
That’s been one thing Mad Max has been able to do regardless of whether he wins or loses. While he’s not quite the dominant hurler he once was, Scherzer is still averaging 9.5 Ks per nine innings — a respectable mark. In four of his last five starts, Scherzer has struck out at least eight batters. That includes a seven-inning, nine-K performance against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field on June 1.
The Phillies are one of the more susceptible teams to whiffing in the majors. Their batters are striking out 9.16 times per game on the season — a number that promises to rise even higher against Scherzer and similar pitchers.
With Scherzer on the mound, the Mets should have the advantage in this matchup. However, I think the sportsbooks have done a good job pricing the game today. Instead, I’m going to target Max's strikeouts prop.
Most sites have set this at 6.5, which seems low given Scherzer’s recent form, Philadelphia’s propensity for strikeouts, and Scherzer’s success against the Phillies. Let’s take the Over on a number that Scherzer should easily surpass.
My best bet: Max Scherzer Over 6.5 strikeouts (-105)
Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay
Scherzer 7+ Ks
Mets ML
Mets to score first
Scherzer is likely to dominate the Phillies this afternoon, and that’s the basis for this same-game parlay. We’ll start by including my best bet, picking Scherzer to record at least seven strikeouts against Philadelphia today.
The Mets will have the advantage with Scherzer on the mound, so it makes sense to throw a moneyline bet in here. The Phillies are starting unproven youngster Cristopher Sanchez, and that should be enough for New York to walk out of Citizens Bank Park with a win today.
Given that I expect Scherzer to shut down the Phillies — at least for a while, if nothing else — I also like New York to score the first run in this game. The visitor also has two other advantages in this regard. Sanchez is unlikely to stop the Mets from scoring completely, and as the road team, New York gets the first crack in the top of the first... which could be all it needs to win this leg of the SGP.
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Mets vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The lines are all over the place in this game, but the Mets opened at around a -120 favorite at most books. As of Saturday morning, the most common line is now New York -130, with some books pushing that number even longer. You can get up to +115 on the Phillies if you’re looking to bet the other way.
While Philadelphia hasn't been great for bettors this year — losing nearly four units on the moneyline — the Mets have been a downright disaster, coming up 20 units short.
However, today’s matchup still bodes well for New York. Sanchez’s raw numbers look good, but keep in mind he’s only thrown 8 1/3 innings in the majors this year, and threw to a 4.35 ERA with Triple A Lehigh Valley on the season. We don’t have to pay much of a premium on Scherzer and the Mets today, so I’m leaning toward New York.
The Over/Under opened at 8.5 runs, but the consensus total has since moved up to a flat nine, with some books going all the way up to 9.5. Both teams have generally played below the number this year, with the Under going 38-33 in Mets games, and 40-28 when the Phillies play.
This game is likely to follow that trend. Scherzer is poised to have success against Philly, and New York's lineup isn’t doing enough to carry a big number on its own. I like the Under, though I’d play it at 9.5 runs and live with the -120 odds you can get at that number.
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Trend to know
Scherzer has struck out seven or more batters in four of his last five starts against the Phillies. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies
Mets vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizen's Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, June 24, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (6-2, 4.04 ERA): Age might be catching up with the veteran, as he has seen his walks and home runs rise while his strikeouts are coming down in 2023. He’s still been effective more often than not, however, as he showed in allowing just one run over eight innings against the Astros on Monday.
Christopher Sanchez (0-0, 3.24 ERA): The 26-year-old Sanchez has only made two starts for the Phillies this year, but got a little more run in 2022 when he posted a 5.63 ERA over 40 innings in a mix of starting and bullpen work. While he hasn’t found much MLB success yet, Sanchez may eventually find his place as a short reliever. He gave up just one hit over seven appearances in the Dominican Winter League this past offseason. Last Saturday, Sanchez held the Oakland Athletics to just one hit over four shutout innings of work.
