MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Thursday, August 21

Aaron Judge appears to be finding his groove after returning from the IL, and we’re backing the Yankees’ captain to go deep again in the series opener against Boston.

Quinn Allen - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Quinn Allen • Betting Analyst
Aug 21, 2025 • 10:51 ET • 4 min read
Aaron Judge New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. New York Yankees designated hitter Aaron Judge (99) rounds first base after hitting a solo home run.

Nine matchups grace Thursday's baseball slate, and there are plenty of MLB picks to choose from. 

My MLB player props for August 21 are highlighted by Aaron Judge, William Contreras, and Juan Soto.

Best MLB home run props today

  • Yankees Judge (+205)
  • Brewers Contreras (+500)
  • Mets Soto (+380)
  • 💲 +8684 parlay💲

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HR picks for August 21

Aaron Judge (+205 at DraftKings)

Aaron Judge has hit the 40-home run mark, having gone deep on Tuesday against the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s left the yard in two of his last four contests, and it will be another important AL East clash tonight as the New York Yankees face the Boston Red Sox.

The Sox send Lucas Giolito to the hill, and while he’s having a respectable campaign, the right-hander has allowed 15 home runs in 19 starts. Judge is 0-for-4 lifetime against him, but the slugger has cracked 29 round-trippers off righties.

This is a fierce rivalry, and the Bronx Bombers need their superstar to perform. I’ll take him to do just that in the series opener.

William Contreras (+500 at DraftKings)

The surging Milwaukee Brewers have one of the best catchers in the big leagues behind the dish in William Contreras. He’s doing his part offensively, batting .258 with 13 home runs and 61 RBI. 

August has been especially kind to Contreras, with the star backstop hitting .282 with five long balls. 

The Brew Crew face the rival Chicago Cubs today, and they will hand Shota Imanaga the ball. Contreras has enjoyed himself against the Japanese starter, going 3-for-7 with two home runs. 

Juan Soto (+380 at DraftKings)

Thankfully for the New York Mets, Juan Soto has come alive as they chase a World Series run this fall. The $765 million man is hitting .249 with 31 home runs, boasting six long balls this month.

He’s left the yard twice in his last five contests, and that includes a bomb against his former team, the Washington Nationals.

The Mets face them again today, with Mackenzie Gore on the bump. He’s 3-for-12 lifetime against him with one HR. Soto has smacked seven of his 31 round-trippers off left-handed hurlers like Gore.

There’s always motivation when you’re taking on your ex-ball club, and Soto will thrive in this spot.

Today’s HR parlay

Aaron Judge

William Contreras

Juan Soto

Today’s most popular HR bets

  1. Aaron Judge, Yankees
  2. Salvador Perez, Royals
  3. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals

Betting info courtesy of DraftKings

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Quinn Allen - Covers
Betting Analyst

Quinn Allen is an experienced sports journalist from Vancouver, Canada who fell in love with sports by the time he could walk. He proceeded to play high-level baseball and soccer growing up and eventually played college baseball in the United States.

After his career ended, Quinn received his broadcast journalism degree from BCIT and has since written for many sports publications including ClutchPoints, Gino Hard, and RG, where he plies his trade as a writer and editor.

Quinn's favorite team is Chelsea FC and he'd like to watch a match at Stamford Bridge one day. He loves to bet on NBA player props and encourages others to bet responsibly and not chase losses.

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