Astros vs Orioles Prediction, Picks & Odds — Thursday, August 21

Gilbert's prediction: Offense dries up in Baltimore.

Ryan Gilbert - Contributor at Covers.com
Ryan Gilbert • Betting Analyst
Aug 21, 2025 • 14:31 ET • 4 min read

MLB

Match starts: 2 hrs
BAL
43 %
HOU
57 %
EXPERT PICK - TOTAL
u8.5 (+100)
Read Analysis
Brandon Young Baltimore Orioles MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young (63) delivers a pitch.

The Houston Astros continue their road trip by kicking off a four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles tonight.

The O’s blanked the Astros in two of three games last weekend in Houston, and my Astros vs. Orioles predictions expect a similar result at Camden Yards.

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, August 21.

Astros vs Orioles prediction

Astros vs Orioles best bet: Under 8.5 (+100)

The Houston Astros' offense is really struggling right now.

They were shut out three games in a row before Mauricio Dubon hit a two-run home run in a 7-2 loss on Wednesday in Detroit. The lack of offense stretches back to last weekend, when Houston was hosting Baltimore and the O’s blanked the Astros twice.

Houston has scored two runs or fewer in six of their last eight games. Although some of those matchups came against top-tier starters like Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty, they also got shut out by tonight’s starter, Brandon Young.

The Baltimore Orioles right-hander threw eight shutout innings last Friday night in Houston, allowing just one hit with no walks while striking out six.

Meanwhile, it'll be southpaw Jason Alexander starting tonight for Houston. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, surrendering only four ER in 22 2/3 IP during that span.

The Astros (63-58) and Orioles (67-54) both trend to the Under this season, and that should continue tonight at Camden Yards.

Astros vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)

The Orioles are winners of three straight and six of their last seven games, and they now return home to face the team they took two of three from last weekend.

Alexander started the season as a reliever for the Athletics and was used out of the bullpen for his first few appearances in Houston, but he has settled in nicely over the last month. He has reached 6+ Ks in three of his last four starts, including six punchouts last time out against these O’s.

Astros vs Orioles odds

  • Moneyline: Houston -105 | Baltimore -115
  • Run line: Houston +1.5 (-220) | Baltimore -1.5 (+180)
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Astros vs Orioles trend

Baltimore has hit the game total Under in 64 of its last 107 games (+17.83 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Orioles.

How to watch Astros vs Orioles and game info

Location Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Date Thursday, August 21, 2025
First pitch 7:15 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Astros starting pitcher Jason Alexander
(3-1, 4.74 ERA)
Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young
(1-6, 5.68 ERA)

Astros vs Orioles latest injuries

Astros vs Orioles weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Ryan Gilbert - Covers
Betting Analyst

Ryan Gilbert brings the passion and pain of being a Philadelphia sports fan. After graduating from Monmouth University with a finance degree, he now uses his statistical background to find inefficiencies in betting markets. With past stops at NHL.com, NBC Sports, and currently at Covers, Ryan's hot picks blend well with the cold ice of a hockey rink.

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