The New York Mets will try to extend their five-game winning streak when they visit the San Diego Padres to open a weekend series on Friday night.
The Mets and Padres have been among the most disappointing teams in the majors, with both sporting identical 41-46 records heading into tonight’s game. But New York isn’t the only hot team coming into this series, as San Diego boasts a three-game winning streak of its own.
Both teams desperately need wins to stay in the NL Wild Card race, and will be throwing veteran pitchers for Friday’s critical game. We’ll break down how this one will play out and analyze the MLB odds in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Padres on July 7.
Mets vs Padres odds
Mets vs Padres predictions
The Mets offense is suddenly on fire, not only scoring runs but finding ways to come through in the clutch.
Down to their last out on Wednesday, rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez homered to spark a two-run ninth-inning rally and lead New York to a 2-1 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Mets followed that up with a 9-0 win on Thursday, and have averaged 6.2 runs per game during their five-game winning streak.
The pitching has come around as well. During the streak, opponents are scoring just 2.2 runs per game against New York. Kodai Senga held the Diamondbacks to one run over eight innings on Wednesday, with Carlos Carrasco shutting out Arizona for eight innings on Thursday.
On Friday, the Mets will start veteran Justin Verlander, who finally seems to be rounding into the form that saw him win the AL Cy Young last year at the age of 39. Over his last two starts, Verlander has gone 12 innings while allowing just a single run on 10 hits. He’s given up one run or less in three of his last four starts now.
Padres starter Yu Darvish hasn’t been quite as successful. The 36-year-old is pitching to a disappointing 4.84 ERA this season, and has given up at least four earned runs in four of his past five starts.
San Diego is riding its own three-game winning streak, having swept the Los Angeles Angels at home this week. But that comes on the heels of a disastrous stretch where the Padres had lost seven of eight. They were also aided in the Angels series by injuries to Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, both of which played an impact on this week’s series.
While the Padres may have righted the ship, the Mets are legitimately on a roll, and will enjoy a clear pitching advantage tonight. With New York coming in as a slight underdog, there’s excellent value on the moneyline. I’m taking the Mets straight up in tonight’s game.
My best bet: Mets moneyline (+112 at WynnBET)
Mets vs Padres same-game parlay
Mets moneyline
Under 8.5
Verlander 5+ strikeouts
For tonight’s same-game parlay, I’m sticking with my pick for the Mets to win the game outright. Then, I’m going to rely on Verlander to provide the rest of the SGP, as I expect him to have a very strong start on Friday night.
First, we’ll take the Under at 8.5 runs. Verlander should keep the Padres lineup in check, building on his recent performances as he once again proves that he’s one of the top pitchers in MLB. The Mets will touch up Darvish, but likely not enough to approach the high number tonight.
Finally, I’m taking Verlander to record at least five strikeouts in tonight’s game. If Verlander can go deep into the game, pitching at least six innings, he shouldn’t have much of an issue hitting this total. He has struck out at least five batters in each of his last four starts, and the Padres aren’t a particularly patient team, so this should be an achievable target for Verlander on Friday.
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Mets vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Padres opened tonight’s game as a -116 favorite. The line has moved further in San Diego’s direction since then, with the consensus line sitting at somewhere between -125 and -130. The best number I’ve seen on the Padres is -122, while you can get +112 on the Mets.
These have been two of the most disappointing teams in the league on the field, and that has translated over to the sports betting world as well. Both teams are over 20 units in the hole on the moneyline, as the two preseason World Series odds contenders are now struggling to even stay in the playoff race.
The Mets have been playing inspired baseball this week, and Verlander should give New York an edge over Darvish and the Padres. I’m taking the Mets on the moneyline tonight as my best bet for the game.
The total on tonight’s game opened at 7.5 runs. That Over/Under has come up across the board, with virtually all books now offering a flat eight runs as the main line. There’s some juice on the Under, however. You’ll have to pay -110 or more to take the Under, while you can find -102 on the Over.
Both teams have been regularly coming in Under the number this year. The Under is 45-36 in Mets games, and has gone 49-34 when the Padres play. I think that’s a trend that will continue tonight.
Despite Darvish’s struggles, this is a solid pitching matchup all around, and Verlander in particular looks like he’s poised for a strong outing. The Mets offense is clicking, but we can’t expect them to carry this total on their own.
I’d prefer making this bet at 8.5 runs, but even at a flat eight, I’m still leaning towards the Under in this game.
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Trend to know
The Mets are 5-0 straight up in their last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres
Mets vs Padres game info
| Location: | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Friday, July 7, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, SDPA |
Starting pitchers
Justin Verlander (3-4, 3.66 ERA): When the Mets added Verlander in the offseason, they thought they were getting a three-time Cy Young Award winner who could anchor their rotation in replacement of Jacob deGrom. Finally, over the last few starts, it seems like Verlander is filling that role. Verlander has given up only one unearned run in his last two starts, most recently going seven innings and giving up that run on five hits in a win over the San Francisco Giants on July 1.
Yu Darvish (5-6, 4.84 ERA): After a strong 2022 campaign that saw him pick up some down ballot Cy Young votes, Darvish has struggled through the first half of 2023. However, there are some signs that he’s been better than his bloated ERA suggests. While his WHIP is up, it has only gone to 1.225, still a very acceptable number. His FIP is just 3.88, meaning he may be due for some positive regression. Last time out, Darvish gave up four runs on seven hits to the San Francisco Giants on June 21.
