The New York Mets head into San Francisco riding a four-game win streak, kicking off their West Coast swing against the Giants on Friday night.
With both starting pitchers looking to bounce back from shaky performances and the total sitting on the lower side my Mets vs. Giants predictions lean toward the Over in this matchup.
Keep reading for full analysis of this series opener in my free MLB picks for July 25.
Mets vs Giants prediction
My Mets vs Giants best bet: Over 7.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Tonight’s game looks like a solid pitching matchup on paper, but both starters have been dealing with struggles lately that make it hard to imagine we’re in for a pitchers’ duel tonight.
Clay Holmes has been largely successful in his conversion to the starting rotation for the New York Mets, going 8-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 20 starts this season. But over his last three outings, Holmes has thrown to a 6.46 ERA in 15 1/3 innings of work.
The story is largely the same for San Francisco Giants starter Logan Webb. The 28-year-old righty is 9-7 with a 3.08 ERA on the year, but has allowed 10 earned runs and two homers over 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts.
That’s enough for me to be skeptical of a total set at 7.5 runs tonight. The recent trends also run contrary to that low number.
The Over is 4-0-1 in San Francisco’s last five games, with a total of 9+ runs in each game, while New York’s offense is coming off a series in which it scored 6+ runs twice.
With a total this low and two pitchers on shaky ground, I’m backing the Over.
Mets vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Mets +1.5
Francisco Lindor 1+ runs
Pete Alonso 1+ RBI
Along with backing the Over, I’ll take the Mets to cover the run line getting 1.5 runs.
In a tight matchup, I’m happy to take the runs and go with the better overall team, even if New York has been shaky on the road.
I’ll also take two of the Mets’ key sluggers — Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso — to contribute, with Lindor scoring a run and Alonso knocking one in.
Mets vs Giants odds
Mets vs Giants live odds
Mets vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +123 | San Francisco -136
- Run line: New York +1.5 | San Francisco -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Mets vs Giants trend
The Giants have only covered the run line in 37 of their last 95 games (-24.35 Units / -21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Giants.
How to watch Mets vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Friday, 7-25-2025 |
| First pitch | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, NBC Sports Bay Area |
| Mets starting pitcher | Clay Holmes (8-5, 3.48 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Logan Webb (9-7, 3.08 ERA) |
Mets vs Giants latest injuries
Mets vs Giants weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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