The New York Mets will look to break a two-game losing streak as they visit the St. Louis Cardinals in a matchup with Wild Card implications on Monday afternoon.
The Mets (58-53) dropped two games over the weekend against the Los Angeles Angels but are slight favorites in the MLB odds tonight against the Cardinals (57-55), who have lost three of their last four.
I’ll look at what bettors can expect from these two playoff hopefuls tonight in my free Mets vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks for August 5.
Mets vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Under 9 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The New York Mets spent most of June and July becoming one of the best offensive teams in the majors, blowing away opponents left and right to get back in the postseason conversation. But those bats have cooled as of late, with New York averaging just 3.2 runs per game over their last five outings. While that’s not enough to change the impression the Mets made over the prior two months, it is perhaps a sign of a little regression from the torrid numbers they put up earlier in the summer.
New York will get a shot to turn things around tonight against St. Louis Cardinals starter Andre Pallante. Originally used out of the bullpen this season, St. Louis moved the 25-year-old Pallante into the rotation on May 29 and have seen reasonable results out of the young righty. In 10 starts, he’s gone 4-4 with a 3.61 ERA. Surprisingly, he’s been much more effective in a starting role, increasing his strikeout rate (7.4 per nine innings vs. 5.4 per nine as a reliever) while holding opponents to a .672 OPS.
The Cardinals haven’t been an imposing offensive team in 2024, scoring an average of just 4.18 runs per game. St. Louis hasn’t been terrible at anything in particular, just below average in nearly every category, including home runs (116) and on-base percentage (.309), which has been enough to hold their offense back. With neither Nolan Arenado nor Paul Goldschmidt putting up big numbers in 2024, the Cardinals don’t have a big bat that their lineup can rally around.
That means their order will be unlikely to trouble Mets starter Sean Manaea, who is coming off one of his best starts of the year. On July 30, Manaea went seven shutout innings against the Minnesota Twins, striking out 11 while allowing just two hits. Manaea has been a solid addition for a New York rotation that lacks star power but has some depth, and he already has a win against the Cardinals this season.
None of this suggests a game where the total should be as high as 9. Yet that’s where we are today. The Mets have played to totals of nine runs or less in four of their last five, while the Cardinals have done so in four straight games. With today’s pitching matchup and the relative struggles of these lineups as of late, I’m happy to back the Under.
Mets vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9
Mets moneyline
Sean Manaea Over 4.5 strikeouts
The big total has me looking at the Under tonight, and taking a closer look at the pitching matchup makes it easy to complete a same-game parlay.
I like the Mets tonight, as they have played well behind Manaea, and he is likely to go longer — and pitch a bit better — than Pallante. Throw in the fact that St. Louis doesn’t have the same offensive firepower as New York, and the Mets are the pick.
I’ll also pick Manaea to hit the Over on his strikeout prop, as he has hit that total in six of his last nine games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Cardinals odds
Mets vs Cardinals live odds
Mets vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 | St. Louis -1.5
- Moneyline: New York +150 | St. Louis -163
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Mets vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets have won about three units on the moneyline this year. The Cardinals are down about four units on the season for backers.
- St. Louis is 5-5 in Pallante’s five starts, while New York has gone 14-7 with Manaea on the mound.
- The Over has a slight 55-54 edge in Cardinals games this season, and has also gone 58-49 when the Mets play.
- The Mets are playing to an average total of 9.42 runs per game on the year, while the Cardinals are averaging 8.73 runs per contest.
Mets vs Cardinals trend
The Under is 3-1-1 in New York’s last five games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cardinals.
Mets vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Monday, 8-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 5:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLBN |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Sean Manaea (7-4, 3.50 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Andre Pallante (4-5, 4.04 ERA) |
Mets vs Cardinals latest injuries
Mets vs Cardinals weather
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