St. Louis Cardinals starter Andre Pallante struggled mightily in 2025, and he doesn't get a soft landing to open his 2026 campaign against the New York Mets tonight.
The right-hander's lack of swing-and-miss stuff headlines my Mets vs. Cardinals predictions.
See why the Mets can run up the score in St. Louis with my MLB picks on Tuesday, March 31.
Mets vs Cardinals predictions
Mets vs Cardinals best bet: Mets team total Over 4.5 (-113)
Among qualified starters, St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante had the fourth-highest ERA in 2025 (5.36). His peripherals weren't much better, either, as he ranked in the 25th percentile in whiff rate, the 17th in chase percentage, and all the way down in the fourth in strikeout rate.
Simply put, he doesn't miss bats, and teams tend to plate runs when he's on the mound.
This bodes well for a New York Mets offense that boasts a ton of typically strong contact hitters. Ignore Bo Bichette's 40% strikeout rate in his first four games; he has a career K% of just 19.5. Likewise, sluggers Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto have K-rates below 18% for their careers.
Expect heavy traffic on the basepaths early and often as the Mets clear this total with ease.
COVERS INTEL: Cardinals relievers have posted a 7.94 ERA with a 13.6% K-rate and 12.5% BB-rate, so the damage might not stop even after Pallante is yanked.
Mets vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Fading Pallante is the name of the game, and I'm targeting the top of the Mets' lineup to do the bulk of the heavy lifting.
Pallante had similar numbers against right-handed and left-handed bats, so we can trust the historic numbers of this trio to make contact on his offerings.
Lindor has batted leadoff in all four games, and he's scored in three of them, including the last two. Soto only has one extra-base hit so far, but he's batting .353, and the matchup is extremely favorable.
Bichette may seem like the wild card, given how Mets fans booed him out of Citi Field, but he's going to get to the dish with traffic on the bases, and his longstanding contact numbers mean more than one series of struggles.
Mets vs Cardinals SGP
- Francisco Lindor 1+ runs
- Juan Soto 2+ total bases
- Bo Bichette 2+ hits + runs + RBI
Mets vs Cardinals home run pick: Carson Benge (+870)
I'm not taking rookie Carson Benge to hit a home run because he's one of only two Mets to go deep this season, but because he's hitting the tar out of the ball, with an average exit velocity ranking in the Top 3 per cent.
That's a small sample, but it aligns with his minor-league track record, where Benge hit 15 homers across three levels last season while posting a 150 wRC+. The +870 price tag pushes us over the top in a matchup against a pitching staff that struggles to limit contact.
Mets vs Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: New York -158 | St. Louis +134
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+106) | St. Louis +1.5 (-128)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Mets vs Cardinals trend
New York has hit the F5 team total Over in 63 of its last 111 games (+9.35 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Mets vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Tuesday, March 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, CARD |
| Mets starting pitcher | Kodai Senga (2025: 7-6, 3.02 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Andre Pallante (2025: 6-15, 5.31 ERA) |
Mets vs Cardinals latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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