The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces meet for the third time this season in yet another rematch of last year’s WNBA Finals.
Phoenix has been crushed by opposing forwards, and my Mercury vs. Aces predictions look for value in a NaLyssa Smith scoring line.
Read my WNBA picks to see why I favor Smith to have a productive offensive outing and how I’m building a +625 SGP featuring an A’ja Wilson value play in a low-scoring affair.
Mercury vs Aces prediction
Mercury vs Aces best bet: NaLyssa Smith Over 11.5 points (-105)
No team has surrendered more points to opposing forwards than the Phoenix Mercury this season. They’ve given up a whopping 63.8 points per game to the position, more than 15 points higher than the Los Angeles Sparks, who rank second in that category.
NaLyssa Smith ranks eighth among forwards in paint scoring at nine points per game, and Phoenix has given up the most points in the paint to forwards at 25.7 per game. The Mercury also rank 12th in Defensive Rating at 107.8.
Smith has scored 12+ points in 11 of 22 games, including her last matchup with Phoenix. I’ll bet this one up to 13.5.
COVERS INTEL: NaLyssa Smith scores 75.3% of her points in the paint, good for the third-highest percentage among players averaging 20+ minutes per game.
Mercury vs Aces same-game parlay
A’ja Wilson ranks third in the W with 10 double-doubles. She’s averaged 10.3 rebounds per game at home compared to 8.8 on the road, and she’s double-doubled in four of eight home games. Wilson’s rebounds line is 9.5 at -135 odds, but betting a double-double yields -110 odds, making it the preferred wager.
Both teams rank in the Bottom 6 in pace, and scoring opportunities could be limited. Las Vegas is 5-5 at home, while Phoenix is 3-9 to the Under on the road, the highest Under percentage in the league. Play down to 170.5.
Mercury vs Aces SGP
- NaLyssa Smith Over 11.5 points
- A’ja Wilson to Record a Double-Double
- Under 172.5
- Best bet: 16-18, -3.37 units
- SGP: 4-30, -8.4 units
- Player prop: 3-5, -2.41 units
Mercury vs Aces odds
- Spread: Mercury +9.5 | Aces -9.5
- Moneyline: Mercury +350 | Aces -450
- Over/Under: Over 172.5 | Under 172.5
Mercury vs Aces trend
Phoenix and Las Vegas have hit the Game Total Under in five of their recent regular-season meetings. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Aces
| Location | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Saturday, July 11, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock, NBC Sports Network |
Mercury vs Aces latest injuries
Mercury: Natasha Mack (Out), Sami Whitcomb(Questionable).
Aces: Janiah Barker (Out), Dana Evans (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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