The Seattle Mariners have lost four in a row, and the Tampa Bay Rays are hoping to add another game to that skid this afternoon.
The Rays are slight -108 favorites to win according to our MLB odds, and a matchup of two strikeout-heavy pitchers has the total sitting at just 7.5 runs.
My Mariners vs. Rays predictions and MLB picks are backing the home side to win a tight, low-scoring affair this afternoon.
Who will win Mariners vs Rays today: Rays moneyline (-112)
Injuries continue to hinder the Seattle Mariners and their offensive output. Their depleted and struggling lineup won’t enjoy seeing Tampa Bay Rays starter Griffin Jax.
Jax employs a nasty sweeper, against which opponents are posting a .177 xBA and whiffing 42.7% of the time. That and his change-up are problems for a Seattle lineup with the fifth-worst strikeout rate (25.1%) over the past two weeks.
Jax struggles at times with long balls, but he’ll be able to limit the damage against a Seattle lineup posting a 90 wRC+ and .122 ISO during that span.
Back the Rays up to -120.
COVERS INTEL: Since the start of June, both Logan Gilbert (31.5%) and Griffin Jax (29.7%) rank in the Top 13 in strikeout rate among starters with at least 25 IP. 
Mariners vs Rays Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-131)
The Rays won’t score many runs themselves. Logan Gilbert has improved every month, and since June 1, he ranks ninth in BB% and fifth in K/BB% among qualified SP.
Gilbert will benefit from the controlled climate as he utilizes an arsenal with three secondary pitches that generate plenty of spin, each with a whiff rate north of 36% this year.
Tampa’s thrived on the long ball the past few weeks, posting a .204 ISO with the fourth-most dingers (23) in that span.
Gilbert’s ability to miss bats will keep this one low-scoring deep into the contest. Back the Under down to -135.
- ML/RL bets: 10-15, -6.27 units
- Over/Under bets: 14-11, +2.25 units
Mariners vs Rays weather
Mariners vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Mariners +104 | Rays -112
- Run line: Mariners -1.5 (+178) | Rays +1.5 (-186)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+117) | Under 7.5 (-131)
Mariners vs Rays trend
The Rays have cashed the moneyline in 33 of their last 45 home games for +16.45 units and a 27% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Rays.
How to watch Mariners vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Saturday, July 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Mariners.TV, Rays.TV |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Logan Gilbert (7-5, 3.19 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Griffin Jax (4-6, 3.60 ERA) |
Mariners vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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