The Chicago Cubs were blanked in the series opener last night and are the slightest of underdogs (-105) against the Cincinnati Reds tonight.
Taking on a struggling lefty in Nick Lodolo, my Cubs vs. Reds predictions and MLB picks are banking on Chicago's bats rebounding in a big way.
Who will win Cubs vs Reds today: Cubs moneyline (-105)
The Chicago Cubs were blanked on Friday night, but they have a great opportunity to get back on track against Nick Lodolo.
In-form offenses have teed off on him all season long. Isolating matchups with teams ranking Top-20 in ISO and OPS in the 10 games prior, Lodolo owns a 7.52 ERA and has allowed 2.05 homers per nine innings.
The Cubs rank Top 5 in both categories over that span, so Lodolo is in for a treat. Javier Assad will need run support, but the Cubs are well-positioned to give him plenty.
Back the Cubs to -120.
COVERS INTEL: Nick Lodolo ranks in the fourth percentile in xERA, setting him up for a long day against this Cubs offense.
Cubs vs Reds Over/Under pick: Over 10 (-105)
Using the same criteria as previously, Lodolo is sporting an 8.27 ERA over four home games and has allowed at least four runs in three of them. This is a spot where the Cubs can truly run it up and score in bulk.
Assad ranks in the 16th percentile in xBA and the third percentile in hard-hit rate. That’s not an ideal profile for success against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark.
I expect a shootout and would play the Over to -115.
- ML/RL bets: 56-45, +1.25 units
- Over/Under bets: 54-43-4, +5.69 units
Cubs vs Reds weather
Temperatures in the low 80s are expected with slight winds blowing in. There could be showers, but both bullpens are very attackable if a starter is forced out early.
Cubs vs Reds odds
- Moneyline: Cubs -105 | Reds -115
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+145) | Reds +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 10 (-105) | Under 10 (-115)
Cubs vs Reds trend
The Cubs have cashed the moneyline in 11 of the last 15 road games for +7.75 units and a 47% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Reds.
How to watch Cubs vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Saturday, July 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee, Reds.TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Javier Assad (6-1, 4.15 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.68 ERA) |
Cubs vs Reds latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
