The Toronto Blue Jays look to take the series after Friday’s win, and they hand the ball to Trey Yesavage in a pick'em against the San Diego Padres and Walker Buehler.
Yesavage is trending up at the right time, and a Padres lineup with zero experience against him sets up my favorite play of the game.
Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for this Saturday, July 11 matchup.
Blue Jays vs Padres predictions
Blue Jays vs Padres best bet: Trey Yesavage Over 17.5 outs (-125)
Trey Yesavage is on track to re-establish his command, and he’s cashed this Over in two straight starts, working six full innings in each. That matters even more on Saturday because the Toronto Blue Jays leaned on their bullpen hard in Friday’s win, deploying five relievers.
Yesavage has a long leash at this point in the season, and Toronto will be counting on him to eat innings. On top of it all, the San Diego Padres are inexperienced against the right-hander, who's technically still a rookie.
San Diego also owns a .225 team batting average, which should help him move through an order that has never seen him. I’d play this bet until -140.
COVERS INTEL: No hitter in the Padres lineup has a single at-bat against Trey Yesavage, which always skews the advantage toward the pitcher. He’s especially tricky for first-timers with his sharp splitter, backup slider and extremely high release point.
Blue Jays vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
For the SGP, I’m stacking the guys I already trust. Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases doubles down on Toronto’s hottest bat, who cashed this same prop on Friday and has a hit in five straight games.
Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts is around his per-game average, but he cashed this Over last time out, and a Padres lineup seeing him for the first time should chase the splitter.
I’ll cap it with the Blue Jays moneyline since they've won three straight and face Walker Buehler and his 5.07 ERA on the other side.
Blue Jays vs Padres SGP
- Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
- Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts
- Blue Jays moneyline
Blue Jays vs Padres home run pick: George Springer (+500)
George Springer is just 1-for-8 lifetime against Padres starter Walker Buehler, but that lone hit is a home run, which tells you what happens when he squares him up. Buehler has been hittable all year with a 5.07 ERA, and that’s the kind of margin Springer can punish.
Over his last 15 games, Springer has found his groove, slugging .467 with a .795 OPS, second on the Blue Jays only to Kazuma Okamoto in that span. I’d play this bet down to +450 and keep it to a quarter unit.
- Best bets: 7-1, +5.63 units
- SGPs: 2-7, -0.06 units
- HR picks: 2-7, -0.03 units
Blue Jays vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Toronto -105 | San Diego -115
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+165) | San Diego +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Padres trend
Padres hitters own a .645 OPS against starting pitchers this season, the lowest mark in the majors, and they're slugging just .352 at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Padres.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 7-11-2026 |
| First pitch | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Trey Yesavage (4-4, 3.31 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Walker Buehler (5-5, 5.07 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Padres latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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