The Atlanta Braves took the series opener against New York and are heavy -170 favorites to come out on top once again.
The New York Mets own a 7-16 record against left-handed starters. My Mets vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks expect their struggles to continue facing Chris Sale on Saturday, July 4.
Who will win Mets vs Braves today: Atlanta Braves (-170)
Chris Sale has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one start since April 6 and ranks in the 98th percentile in Pitcher Run Value.
He draws a mediocre New York Mets offense that slots 15th or worse in almost every important metric vs. lefties.
Sale has allowed just seven runs over eights starts facing teams ranking outside the Top-15 in ISO against left-handed pitching.
The Atlanta Braves will provide support facing Sean Manaea, who sits in the 23rd percentile in Pitcher Run Value.
Bet the Braves to -185.
COVERS INTEL: Chris Sale's 2.97 xFIP is the lowest mark among all of today's projected starting pitchers.
Mets vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-105)
Non-elite offenses trying to score on Sale has been like pulling teeth. He has only allowed multiple runs only once over eights starts against teams 15th or worse in ISO.
It’ll be a challenge for a shallow Mets lineup to string together hits, and Sale hasn’t conceded a homer in seven consecutive starts.
The Braves possess power but they have hit just .225 against left-handed pitching since June 1. They’re not generating enough traffic to score in bulk.
I see value on the Under and would play it to -115.
- ML/RL bets: 49-39, -0.45 units
- Over/Under bets: 47-37-4, +5.49 units
Mets vs Braves weather
Temperatures could reach the 90s but the winds are blowing slightly inwards. Small boost to the offenses.
Mets vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: New York +145 | Atlanta -170
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-140) | Atlanta -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-115) | Under 8.0 (-105)
Mets vs Braves trend
New York has hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+7.80 units, 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Saturday, July 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Mets starting pitcher | Sean Manaea (1-3, 4.71 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Chris Sale (8-6, 2.10 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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