The New York Mets wrap up a three-game set against the Atlanta Braves on Thursday night as they look to increase their lead atop the NL East.
The Mets were absolutely clobbered by the Braves last night but oddsmakers are expecting a far different result at Truist Park this time around with Jacob deGrom toeing the rubber for the visitors.
MLB betting lines have the Mets installed as -175 favorites while the Over/Under checks in at 7. Here are our best free Mets vs. Braves picks and predictions on July 1.
Mets vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Thursday, July 1, 2021
• Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports South, SNY
Mets vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 4:15 p.m. ET, New York is a -165 favorite at TwinSpires Sportsbook, after opening -170 and sliding to -162. The Mets are attracting 71 percent of tickets and 69 percent of dollars on the moneyline, with the public backing stud pitcher Jacob deGrom. Not surprisingly, the total is a relatively low and stable 7 on two-way action, with 56 percent of tickets on the Over, 59 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMets vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jacob deGrom (7-2, 0.69 ERA): DeGrom has been nothing short of incredible this year, even by his own lofty standards. The Mets ace is on pace to shatter numerous modern-day MLB pitching records and has allowed just two runs in his last 36 innings pitched. While there have been some concerns about his health, his recent roughhousing with a Mets teammate suggests that he's not too worried.
Ian Anderson (5-4, 3.42 ERA): Anderson has posted some solid numbers this season after a strong rookie year in 2020. That said, the 23-year-old has looked a bit shaky recently, pitching to a 4.40 ERA in his last six starts and coming off a loss to the Cincinnati Reds.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Jonathan Villar SS (Out), Brandon Nimmo LF (Out).
Braves: Marcell Ozuna LF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Mets are 22-7 in their last 29 games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
Moneyline pick
The Atlanta Braves destroyed New York 20-2 last night but are still third in the NL East, 4.5 games behind the first-place Mets. New York has been getting the job done as a favorite this season, going 22-7 in its previous 29 contests as chalk.
The Mets have been one of the worst hitting teams in the majors, but we don't really care because deGrom is on the mound.
The two-time NL Cy Young winner is on pace for a record-shattering year and easily leads the majors in ERA (0.69), ERA+ (554), WHIP (0.53), FIP (0.99), strikeouts per 9 innings (14.1), and strikeouts to walks (11.09). Despite the Mets' hitting woes, they have gone 8-0 in deGrom's last eight starts.
The Braves will send Anderson to the hill and the young right-hander has struggled lately, allowing at least three runs in four of his last six starts, including an outing against the Mets where he was shredded for seven hits and four runs through four innings. More importantly for bettors, the Braves are just 1-5 during those six starts.
The Braves have a big edge at the plate but it shouldn't matter tonight. Despite the Mets' poor play on the road, they are 4-1 in their last five trips to Truist Park and should be able to ride deGrom to another win tonight.
PREDICTION: Mets (-169)
Over/Under pick
The Mets have been carried by the outstanding play of their rotation this season which has been necessary because their hitting has been pathetic. New York is second-last in the majors in scoring at 3.58 runs per game while ranking third-last with an OPS of .674.
Anderson might be going through a rough patch but he still has a solid WHIP of 1.18 and an opponent batting average of .221 on the year and should be able to have some success against New York's putrid lineup.
The Braves are one of the better offensive teams in the majors, especially at home, but they've been owned by the living legend that is deGrom. Since the start of the 2018 season, deGrom has pitched to a 1.62 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP in 13 starts against Atlanta — including five innings of one-hit ball against the Braves 10 days ago.
The Under is 9-4 in the Mets' last 13 games while cashing in six of the Braves' previous seven contests. Back the Under again.
PREDICTION: Under 7 (-110)
Mets vs Braves betting card
- Mets (-169)
- Under 7 (-110)
Picks made on 7/01/2021 at 11:30 a.m. ET
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