It's a rubber game tonight as the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves have traded wins in the first two games of this series at Truist Park.
The Braves had a bit more difficult of a time getting the win last night than expected, narrowly escaping by a solitary run. That win came after the Mets put up double-digits on the scoreboard the night before, making quick work of Atlanta in the process. Tonight, we'll see two veterans take the mound in Charlie Morton and Jose Quintana, as the Mets look to give it one last hail mary push to make the playoffs.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for the Mets vs. Braves on Wednesday, August 23.
Mets vs Braves odds
Mets vs Braves predictions
"That was vintage Charlie," Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker said. "His breaking ball was something else."
Snitker was referring to veteran right-hander Charlie Morton after his recent six-inning shutout appearance against the New York Yankees. He'll look to build on it today and deliver a similar performance against the New York Mets. Morton has been occasionally shaky this season, but that most recent performance (one that included just one walk) gives me confidence in him for the rest of the season. It also leads the list of reasons why we'll be on the Under tonight as our best bet.
Yes, that start came against the Yankees, who pretty much everyone is shutting down these days, but I can't overstate how big it was for Morton to put together a start where he issued just one free pass. It's been an area of concern for Morton all season with a walk rate that sits in the bottom 10% of the league, and it came on the back of a seven-walk showing against tonight's opponent.
Despite the seven walks, he allowed zero earned runs. It's relatively simple: what happens when the walks are removed if Morton can allow that many walks and not give up a run?
It makes sense that Morton would succeed against the Mets and the Yankees as their offensive metrics profile similarly. They both chase about the same amount of pitches, and each consistently makes weak contact and both have struggled to produce offense.
On the other side, I won't sell you that Jose Quintana will shut down the best offense in baseball, but he can do enough. If you're going to slow down the Braves, it's nearly essential that your best pitches aren't reliant on velocity, and that's the case for the veteran southpaw. His two best pitches have been the curveball and sinker, which combine to make up over 50% of his pitching arsenal. That latter has produced a batting average of .175, a slugging percentage of .250, and a whiff rate close to 30%. I expect Quintana to lean on those pitches tonight and have decent enough success with them.
Back the Under tonight. I projected a number closer to 9.0 and believe the public perception of the Braves is pumping this number up. I'll take my chances on it staying in the single digits.
My best bet: Under 10.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
Mets vs Braves same-game parlay
Under 10.5 (-135)
Ronald Acuna Jr. 1+ stolen bases (+110)
Marcell Ozuna 1+ RBI (+125)
We're taking on Under and pairing it with two plays that are only sometimes correlated for an excellent price.
The first leg of this is Ronald Acuna Jr. to steal a base. If you had blindly bet Acuna to steal a base all season, I'm not sure the amount you'd be up, but I know you'd quite happily have turned a profit. On the season, he's stolen a base in about 40% of games, and he'll be moving tonight if given a chance with the Braves eager to grab another series win. Quintana has been a good target, too. Over the last two seasons, runners have had a 78% success rate when targeting him on the base paths.
The last leg is Marcell Ozuna. Over the previous 10 games, Ozuna has done the following: Gone Over 1.5 bases in eight games, recorded an RBI in five, and hit a home run in three. Ozuna is one of the better breaking ball hitters in the lineup, and it would be silly not to include him here. We went with the value and took him to put another run across the plate.
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Mets vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
According to our Covers matchup page, the Braves are collecting a whopping 75% of the bets, making taking a side here nearly impossible. The reason? The value just isn't there.
My projections made the Braves around -190 and the best price I see is -198. I'm leaning toward the Mets, but I don't think it'll be enough to place a bet. Although I'm encouraged by what we've seen from Quintana, there's not enough data to speak too confidently about him. He's also faced the Braves once already and held them down.
Ultimately, I need about +190 to back the Mets on the moneyline, and I don't anticipate getting that. The best action may be to wait for an early Atlanta run and try to catch the Mets on a multi-run spread. If that occurs, I could be enticed.
As I mentioned above, we're on the Under tonight. One pitcher feels undervalued, and another is improving with one eye toward the playoffs. The weather being on our side is helpful tonight, too. It will be excessively hot like it is for most around the country, but winds will be blowing in from left field. According to Ballparkpal.com, that's historically been suitable for a decent run reduction.
We've been five of the last 10 between these two teams going Under, so there needs to be more direction from a trends side. However, four games have gone Under in each of Morton's and Quintana's last five starts.
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Trend to know
Four of the last 5 starts for this pair of pitchers have gone Under. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves
Mets vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 23, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, BSSO |
Starting pitchers
Jose Quintana (1-4, 3.03 ERA): Quintana has posted five straight quality starts. Injuries have made this season a short one for the 34-year-old as we set near the end of August, and he has just six appearances. However, the majority of those showings have been solid ones. He's gone five innings or more in every start and allowed three earned runs or less each time.
Charlie Morton (12-10, 3.54 ERA): The righty started the year with two consecutive months with an ERA well above his career average. Since then, he's rounded more into form. Morton went six innings, gave up no earned runs, and, most importantly, walked just one batter. Walks had been a big issue for Morton, and improving his control could go a long way to his success down the stretch.
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