The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners open their early-week series this afternoon at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees have hit a rough patch, managing just three wins over their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Mariners are riding momentum with a 7-3 record over that same span.
Instead of focusing on the moneyline or total, our top Mariners vs. Yankees predictions zeroes in on the player prop market — where the best value lies tonight.
Read on for my MLB picks for Tuesday, July 8, featuring Logan Gilbert.
Mariners vs Yankees prediction
My Mariners vs Yankees best bet: Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 strikeouts (-140 at DraftKings)
Logan Gilbert has had some positive experiences against the New York Yankees, and I expect that trend to continue tonight.
His last start against them came at the end of last year, where he went six innings and struck out nine batters. In that time, the Yankees have added some pieces that have collectively changed their swing profile, but they didn't change what he leaned on that day to generate so many whiffs. They still won't be able to hit the split-finger fastball.
Aaron Judge & Co. have struggled against Gilbert's best offering. Judge will enter this game with a K-rate at any eye-popping 55% against the pitch. Others that fill the lineup with struggles against the pitch include Jazz Chisholm, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Wells, all of whom have a 40% or higher K-rate against this pitch.
Why is this so important? Gilbert has thrown the split-finger fastball 182 times this season. Over these 182 pitches, he's had a strikeout rate of 64.8%.
Not only is that the highest among any starting pitcher with any pitch, but it's also the highest by an extensive margin, with the next closest being 56%.
He's in a perfect spot to lean on it heavily tonight against a lineup that has shown they struggle a ton with it.
Mariners vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 strikeouts
Mariners moneyline
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 strikeouts
I like the Seattle Mariners to get the job done tonight. It's mostly centered around Gilbert having an outsized advantage against starting pitcher Will Warren, who was due for negative regression and is finally getting it.
I'm finishing this off with Judge to have at least two strikeouts. His ridiculously high strikeout rate against Gilbert's best pitch jumps off the page.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
Mariners vs Yankees live odds
Mariners vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Seattle +115 | New York -135
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mariners vs Yankees trend
The Mariners have hit the Over in 11 of their last 17 away games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees.
How to watch Mariners vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, 7-8-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | RSNW, YES |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Logan Gilbert (2-2, 3.40 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (5-4, 5.02 ERA) |
Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries
Mariners vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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