The Seattle Mariners will look to avoid a three-game sweep tonight as they send rookie pitcher Bryan Woo to the mound to knock off Domingo German and the New York Yankees in a game MLB odds makers have as a pick ‘em with a total of 7.5.
With leadoff man J.P. Crawford banged up and Jose Caballero likely stepping in for a second straight game, should MLB player prop bettors be targeting the Seattle infielder’s mispriced Overs across the board?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs. Yankees on Thursday, June 22.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
Mariners vs Yankees predictions
Jose Caballero’s Over props are projecting well today as the Seattle Mariners infielder has taken the leadoff spot with J.P. Crawford dealing with a shoulder injury. Bettors might want to wait to see the lineup before betting his Overs, but at the time of writing, it’s looking like the top spot of the Seattle order is Caballero’s today.
His Over 0.5 hits is -115, which is a play that shows value, but I’m taking a bigger swing here and getting down on his Over 0.5 runs at +210. THE BAT is projecting 0.50 runs scored today.
The rookie has hits in three straight games and has a very good 13.4% walk rate combined with a great eye at the dish in the minors. He will face a pitcher in Domingo German who has been extremely inconsistent this year and is coming off a performance where he allowed seven runs and recorded just six outs. If those issues continue tonight, Caballero could be setting the table for the middle of the Seattle order.
The going price on a run from a leadoff hitter in the league is roughly -120 to even money. Getting this at +210 is something that seldom happens, and FanDuel is as short as +130.
My best bet: Caballero Over 0.5 runs (+210)
Mariners vs Yankees same-game parlay
Caballero Over 0.5 runs
German Over 1.5 earned runs
Woo Over 5.5 strikeouts
Getting a likely leadoff hitter at +210 to score a run is some insane value and when I pair it with German Over 1.5 earned runs it gives me +300 odds, which are solid at that that low total. Getting an Over 1.5 earned runs in a game that is a pick 'em is great, and THE BAT is projecting 2.5 earned runs from the Yankees starter.
Bryan Woo has 16 strikeouts in his last 10.2 innings of work and a K% of 37.7% in the big leagues. He has a 16% swinging-strike rate and faces a weak New York offense that is striking out at 24% over the last 30 days. The +300 pairing of the runs plus the strikeout is at true odds of +600.
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Mariners vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Seattle surprisingly closed as a pick ‘em in the series opener in a 3-1 loss to Gerrit Cole with George Kirby opposing him. Yesterday, the visitors closed as a -145 favorite in a 4-2 loss in Luis Castillo vs. Jhony Brito. Oddsmakers and the betting public have shown that the Mariners are the more-favored team in this series, and why tonight’s line sits as a pick ‘em.
Despite the love of the market movers, Seattle is winless in this series and has scored just three runs. The Mariners opened at +100 today and the market continues to fade the Aaron Judge-less Yankees who could also be without Willie Calhoun, who exited yesterday with a hamstring injury. He was hitting third and DHing before leaving with the injury.
The Mariners might be without leadoff man Crawford but are healthy other than that. The offense has been inconsistent but still scores at the same rate as the Yankees on the season.
The starting pitching matchup may not favor the Yankees at first glance, either. Yes, German has a very respectable ERA at home (2.92) but he was lit up in his last start, and Woo is stretched out and has been racking up Ks over his first three starts. He gave up six runs over two innings in his first start, which is why the ERA is so high, but in his next two games — 10.1 innings — he’s recorded 16 punchouts to just one walk with a 3.45 ERA. This is not a difficult New York lineup to navigate, and one that has averaged just 3.29 runs per game without Judge and is 6-8 SU.
Both bullpens have all arms available, and the high-leverage arms on both sides can keep the scoring down late ,which is why the total is at 7.5 and leaning to the Under after opening at 8.
In a game that will likely be close, I prefer backing the better offense, and that’s the Mariners. The recent pricing of the series is also a big indicator of the better team and the 10-point move towards the visitors is also reassuring.
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Trend to know
The Yankees are 1-5 in their last six games after allowing two runs or fewer in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees
Mariners vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, June 22, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Bryan Woo (0-1, 7.30 ERA): Woo will make his fourth MLB start and has been stretched out throwing 91 pitches (15.2 outs) in his last outing, where he struck out nine batters and walked none. He started the year at Double-A and now has a 20:3 K/BB ratio over 13 big-league innings, but the rookie has just 100 innings of work over his minor-league career. Woo predominantly throws three pitches (fastball, sinker, and a slider), and THE BAT projects 88 pitches 15.6 outs, 5.61 strikeouts, and 2.40 earned runs.
Domingo German (4-4, 4.30 ERA): German will be making his 14th start of the year and is coming off his worst start of 2023 allowing seven runs on seven hits over just two innings. He carries a 65:23 K/BB ratio over 69 innings with 11 home runs, and has an ERA three points lower at home than on the road. The Yankees are 7-6 SU when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 91 pitches, 16.8 outs, 5.61 strikeouts, and 2.51 earned runs.
