The American League divisional races are heating up, and we have meaningful baseball this afternoon in Tampa Bay when the Seattle Mariners meet the Tampa Bay Rays for Game 3 of their four-game series. The MLB odds for this contest are tight, with the Rays holding as -135 favorites, and the Over/Under at 8.5.
Seattle is a half-game behind the Houston Astros in the AL West Standings, facing a Tampa Bay club looking to make up ground on Baltimore’s' four-game AL East lead.
Can the Rays defeat the Mariners today? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs. Rays on Saturday, September 9.
Mariners vs Rays odds
Mariners vs Rays predictions
Righty Aaron Civale has been a fantastic addition to the Tampa Bay rotation since being acquired in a trade with Cleveland at the deadline. The Rays are 4-2 when he takes the hill.
Civale struck out a dozen in his last start against the Red Sox. He’s up against a Mariners offense with the second-highest strikeout rate in the AL this season against righties, and the fourth-highest strikeout rate over the past 30 days.
That’s not to say Civale will have it easy today, because he won’t. The Mariners have plenty of power in their lineup with a wRC+ of 107 against righties. Still, Civale has surrendered just eight earned runs over 15 1/3 frames at the Trop, has always pitched well at home, and should be able to limit any real damage the Mariners may try and inflict on him.
Tampa Bay, statistically, is the best-hitting team in the AL against righties. They opened the season tearing the cover off the ball, but regressed during the middle part of 2023. However, they scored seven runs on Friday night, and have crossed the dish 37 times over Civale’s six starts for Tampa Bay.
Seattle originally slated Bryan Woo as the starter, but Mariners manager Scott Servais has decided to skip his turn in the rotation. This means a bullpen game with righty Luke Weaver expected to be the “bulk” guy.
Seattle is chasing Houston in the standings, but they’ve played .500 ball over their past 10 and are 3-5 over their current eight-day road trip. Back the Rays with confidence today.
My best bet: Rays moneyline (-120 at BetRivers)
Mariners vs Rays same-game parlay
Rays moneyline
Over 8.5
We already discussed why I chose the Tampa Bay moneyline play as my best bet.
I chose the Over because the 8.5 is too close to the key numbers nine and 11. There’s a better chance of this game ending in either nine or 11 runs than the game ending below those digits.
Weaver has had some rough outings this season and faces a strong Rays lineup against righties. Civale has been less than perfect, and there’s a strong possibility this game ends Over the 8.5 runs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Mariners vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
We’ve already discussed why I like Civale and the Rays to win this game, and briefly discussed why I chose the Over 8.5 for the second leg of the SGP. Here are some additional notes for this afternoon's ballgame.
The Over is 4-1 over Civale’s last five starts. The Rays seem to rip the ball when Civale takes the mound, and we should see this trend continue at Tropicana Field.
The Over is 8-2 in the Rays' last 10 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 6-1 over the past seven against the AL West.
Tampa Bay is 46-26-1 to the Over when favored at Tropicana Field, and the Over is 44-28-1 when the Rays play at home this season.
The Mariners are 35-34-2 to the Over as the away side, and 18-16-1 to the Over as the underdog. The Over is also 7-1 over the past eight games following a Mariners loss.
Mariners right-fielder Teoscar Hernandez brings a 16-game hitting streak to today’s ballgame. Hernandez has jacked seven bombs with 26 hits and 20 RBI. He’s 2-for-7 lifetime against Civale with a home run and one RBI.
Best MLB bonuses
All Users
Profit boost (up to 100%) on one SGP daily! Bet Now
New Users
Bet $50 and get $250 in bonus bets! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Rays are 6-0 in their last six during Game 3 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Rays
Kentucky: Sports betting is coming!
Kentucky sports betting will launch on September 28 — but you can pre-register now!
Check out the best Kentucky sports betting apps, as well as the best Kentucky sportsbook promos!
21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Mariners vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, September 9, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Starting pitchers
Luke Weaver (2-5, 6.71 ERA): The Mariners haven’t officially named a starter as of this writing, but Weaver is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings today. Weaver has surrendered 2.2 home runs and nearly three walks per nine frames on the bump this season and has allowed a pair of bombs with five earned runs over nine innings with Seattle.
Aaron Civale (7-3, 2.76 ERA): Civale has been very steady for Tampa Bay. The Rays acquired him at the deadline from Cleveland to stabilize their starting staff. Civale is 2-1 for Tampa Bay but has allowed eight earned runs with 23 strikeouts over his past 15 frames. Tampa Bay is 4-2 over his six starts, and the Rays are 2-1 when he starts at Tropicana Field.
Latest injuries
Weather
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
