Let's get this weekend off and running!
Tonight's MLB player props feature some of baseball's most exciting hitters.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Alec Burleson |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | -134 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | -111 |
 James Wood |
Over 1.5 hits+runs+rbi | -122 |
Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-134)
A player I love this evening can be found in a game your father will be unable to watch, the first Apple TV broadcast of the night between the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals.
I am in love with Cardinals first baseman Alec Burleson tonight as he draws Royals right-hander Seth Lugo. The St. Louis slugger owns an elite rating in the current season dataset on Batters-Box and a strong rating in the default dataset. More importantly, his strong-rated trends are pretty mouthwatering.
In 40 strongly rated games:
- 1+ Hit: 75%
- 2+ Hits: 30%
- Double: 25%
- Home Run: 20%
- Over 1.5 Total Bases: 52.5%
On top of that, Burleson has been seeing the ball extremely well, posting a .357 batting average, .964 slugging percentage, and 1.364 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. During that stretch, he has also produced a 47.6% hard contact rate and a 28.6% barrel rate.
Lugo, on the other hand, has been getting knocked around by left-handed hitters this season. At home, he is allowing a 63.9% elevation rate, and over the last 60 left-handed batters he has faced, they own a .356 xBA, .699 xSLG, and .395 xwOBA while generating 49% hard contact and an 18.4% barrel rate.
I think this is a great spot to back a hitter who is not only seeing the ball exceptionally well, but also owns nearly 90% arsenal coverage against a struggling arm.
If you are not in the juice-paying business, I would consider taking his home run and double props individually for a little more value.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Apple TV
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-111)
Yup, our boy, Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.
He finds himself in a fantastic spot this evening against Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee. Alvarez not only carries an elite rating against Bibee, but he also owns 100% arsenal coverage against the entire pitch mix.
The Guardians starter has struggled mightily against left-handed bats this season, and things have not improved over his last 60 left-handed hitters faced. Those hitters have produced a .460 xBA, .944 xSLG, and .461 xwOBA, while generating 45.2% hard contact, a 21.4% barrel rate, and elevating the ball 64.2% of the time.
As for Alvarez, the big fella has been on an absolute tear. Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns a .444 batting average, .852 slugging percentage, and a 1.352 OPS, while producing nearly 60% hard contact and a 27.3% barrel rate.
At this price, it is hard for me to pass up the most dangerous hitter in baseball when he is en fuego. I would play this up to -125.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, CLEG
James Wood Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-122)
“Colby, are we really just running chalk today?”
Numbers talk. Good players are good for a reason.
James Wood is a good player, and today he is our guy as he finds himself in a strong spot against Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Griffin Jax. Much like Yordan Alvarez, Wood brings elite arsenal coverage, handling 87.1% of Jax’s pitch mix.
He also clears this prop 51.11% of the time, backed by a sample of 135 elite ratings, per Batters-Box.
Wood is having a career year, and the recent underlying numbers are borderline diabolical. Over his last 30 at-bats versus right-handed pitching, he is posting a .360 batting average, .680 slugging, and 1.113 OPS, with a 50% hard hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate.
On the other hand, Jax has been allowing plenty of hard contact and high-quality contact. At home against left-handed hitters, opponents are lifting the ball nearly 71% of the time.
Over his last 60 lefties faced, they are producing a 9.8% barrel rate while elevating the baseball 61% of the time. Those hitters also hold a .409 xBA, .591 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA.
I would play this up to -130, or take the plus money on his bases.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, NATS
- Prop picks: 234-402-36, +8.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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