Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is turning a corner, and he profiles extremely well against Chicago Cubs starter Ben Brown to keep the bat warm, making Over 1.5 total bases at a +135 price an attractive play.
Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for this Friday, June 19 matchup.
Blue Jays vs Cubs predictions
Blue Jays vs Cubs best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. profiles extremely well against Ben Brown, who gives up hard contact and throws a mix of curveballs and sinkers to right-handed batters at an 81% rate.
Vladdy has crushed these pitch types all season, with a .392 AVG and a .468 SLG.
He’s starting to heat up, too, with hits in five of his last six games, including his first home run in 32 days yesterday, which could be the confidence-builder he needs to get back to his All-Star self.
Guerrero’s hard-hit rate against the curveball and sinker, averaging 58% since June 1 — up from his 47% season average — points to the potential for more extra-base hits in the future.
A Vladdy breakout is coming, and a favorable matchup against Brown makes this bet playable even at +120.
COVERS INTEL: Brown is a contact pitcher who owns an 85.4% zone-contact rating, matching Guerrero’s 85.5% zone-contact rate, making this a favourable matchup for the Jays slugger, who ranks in the 94th percentile in xBA.
Blue Jays vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Guerrero Jr. owns just an 4.8% strikeout rate against Brown's principle pitch mix, and has gone Under this number in eight of his 13 June games.
Another Toronto Blue Jays batter who profiles well against the Chicago Cubs starter is Nathan Lukes, who owns a .340 AVG against Brown’s pitch mix, and has recorded 1+ hits in 19 of his last 22 games since returning from the IL.
Blue Jays vs Cubs SGP
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 strikeouts
- Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 hits
Blue Jays vs Cubs home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+675)
Brown has surrendered just one home run through 62 innings of work this season, so a quarter-unit wager is in order on this bet.
Brown has been hit hard, ranking in the 29th percentile with a 42.9% hard-hit rate in 2026.
Perhaps after a 32-day buffer between his last two home runs, Guerrero Jr. digs in and goes deep two games in a row. I’ll make a small wager on the breakout.
- Best bets: 35-37, +2.85 units
- SGPs: 14-58, +4.15 units
- HR picks: 11-61, -0.1 units
Blue Jays vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Toronto -102 | Chicago -120
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Blue Jays vs Cubs trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in nine of their last 13 away games (+5.15 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Cubs.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Friday, 6-19-2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock, SN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (4-4, 3.41 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Ben Brown (3-2, 1.74 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Cubs latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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