It's a fresh week with a pretty appetizing slate to kick things off.
Here are my favorite MLB home run props and predictions from tonight's schedule, highlighted by Matt Olson and Wilyer Abreu.
We'll add another long-ball pick later in the day to round things out for our MLB picks on Monday, Aug. 10.
MLB home run props for today
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Matt Olson
Wilyer Abreu
Home run prediction: Matt Olson (+344)
Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson finds himself with an elite rating on Batters-Box this evening, while also carrying 72.2% arsenal coverage against New York Mets right-hander Christian Scott. The Mets starter owns poorly rated matchup marks in hard contact and ground-ball rate.
Scott has had more issues with left-handed hitters this season. The last 90 he has faced own a .500 xSLG, .287 xBA, and are elevating the baseball nearly 61% of the time.
Meanwhile, Olson has been absolutely punishing the baseball. Over his last 10 games, he is producing a 50% hard-hit rate, 30.8% barrel rate, and 80.8% elevation rate, all while owning an .865 SLG, .568 ISO and 42.9% HR/FB rate.
I expect a big boom from the dish this evening from the Braves slugger.
Take this down to +300.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, SNY
Home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (+325)
I am 100% taking a Boston Red Sox bat to go deep against the Toronto Blue Jays' pitching machine, also known as Jameson Taillon.
The veteran right-hander has the worst pitcher rating on the day, according to Batters-Box's current season dataset. Taillon also owns a poorly rated matchup in wOBA, ISO, and hard contact, allowing over 41% on the year.
Wilyer Abreu stands out the most in this Red Sox lineup. He carries an elite rating, covers nearly 70% of Taillon's below-average pitch mix and is generating a 20% barrel rate over his last 10 games. During that same stretch, Abreu owns a .730 SLG, .433 ISO, 212 wRC+ and 29.4% HR/FB rate.
Taillon has been getting crushed by lefties all season long. His last 60 left-handed hitters have produced a near 17% barrel rate and 76.2% elevation rate, while owning a .739 xSLG and .428 xwOBA.
This is a great spot for the Red Sox to continue their winning ways, with Abreu starting things off with a nuke.
Take this down to +285.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, NESN
- HR picks: 95-340, +8.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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