It's a fresh week with a pretty appetizing slate to kick things off.
Here are my favorite MLB home run props and predictions from tonight's schedule, with Junior Caminero joining the party that already included Matt Olson and Wilyer Abreu.
Below, I'll explain why Caminero is an appealing pick against the A's in Sacramento with my MLB picks on Monday, Aug. 10.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Matt Olson |
+344 |
 Wilyer Abreu |
+325 |
 Junior Caminero |
+226 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +5633 |
Home run prediction: Matt Olson (+344)
Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson finds himself with an elite rating on Batters-Box this evening, while also carrying 72.2% arsenal coverage against New York Mets right-hander Christian Scott. The Mets starter owns poorly rated matchup marks in hard contact and ground-ball rate.
Scott has had more issues with left-handed hitters this season. The last 90 he has faced own a .500 xSLG, .287 xBA, and are elevating the baseball nearly 61% of the time.
Meanwhile, Olson has been absolutely punishing the baseball. Over his last 10 games, he is producing a 50% hard-hit rate, 30.8% barrel rate, and 80.8% elevation rate, all while owning an .865 SLG, .568 ISO and 42.9% HR/FB rate.
I expect a big boom from the dish this evening from the Braves slugger.
Take this down to +300.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, SNY
Home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (+325)
I am 100% taking a Boston Red Sox bat to go deep against the Toronto Blue Jays' pitching machine, also known as Jameson Taillon.
The veteran right-hander has the worst pitcher rating on the day, according to Batters-Box's current season dataset. Taillon also owns a poorly rated matchup in wOBA, ISO, and hard contact, allowing over 41% on the year.
Wilyer Abreu stands out the most in this Red Sox lineup. He carries an elite rating, covers nearly 70% of Taillon's below-average pitch mix and is generating a 20% barrel rate over his last 10 games. During that same stretch, Abreu owns a .730 SLG, .433 ISO, 212 wRC+ and 29.4% HR/FB rate.
Taillon has been getting crushed by lefties all season long. His last 60 left-handed hitters have produced a near 17% barrel rate and 76.2% elevation rate, while owning a .739 xSLG and .428 xwOBA.
This is a great spot for the Red Sox to continue their winning ways, with Abreu starting things off with a nuke.
Take this down to +285.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, NESN
Home run prediction: Junior Caminero (+226)
I think it is a great day to back a guy who has homered in nearly 30% of his elite-rated games this season, and that guy is Tampa Bay Rays star Junior Caminero. The highest-rated Ray on the day over at Batters-Box, Caminero covers 80.5% of Athletics left-hander Jacob Lopez's pitches.
Over his last 60 plate appearances against southpaws, the Rays slugger owns a .580 SLG, 1.013 OPS, and .260 ISO while generating a 51.3% hard-hit rate and 12.8% barrel rate. The third baseman has been even better in his last 10 games, producing a 54% hard-hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate.
Lopez, on the other hand, has fared fairly well against right-handed hitters, but he is still allowing nearly a 70% elevation rate over his last 60 batters faced. At home, right-handed hitters are elevating the ball 70.2% of the time while producing a 34% hard-hit rate.
The weather in Sacramento should be perfect for Caminero, with near 10-MPH winds blowing toward left-center and temperatures reaching the upper 80s.
Do your best to boost this one, but I would not take it lower than +225.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, RAYS
- HR picks: 95-340, +8.7 units
Best home run combo for August 10
| Matt Olson |
Trade Now +5633 |
| Wilyer Abreu |
|
| Junior Caminero |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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