It's a getaway slate with lots of potential rain spots on the board. The hot weather has come and gone, so digging for some home run gems and MLB player props means circling the few HR-plus matchups.
The HR potential in Anaheim today might be the best on the board, with both offenses - highlighted by Mike Trout and Nick Kurtz - needing a piece of the HR pie.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 20.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
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Home run pick: Mike Trout (+316)
I'm kicking myself for avoiding Mike Trout yesterday in a good spot, but at a sub-300 pricetag, it was a pass. That won't be the case today at +316 with a fair price at +280. Trout snapped a 12-game HR drought last night in Anaheim, and his swing speed is not dropping as we enter the Summer months of the season, which can be a worry for the oft-injured outfielder.
Trout gets Aaron Civale, who is a bottom-25 starter in BlastCont% and a pitcher he has already taken deep in a small six-at-bat sample. He isn't the only Halo projecting +EV, as Zach Neto (+433) and Jo Adell (+399) are also on the list. Neto has been crushing, and I bet Adell in yesterday's MLB picks, so the day-after theory is in full effect.
With a lot of rain on the slate, 6-mph winds blowing out to center with mid-70-degree temperatures are creating one of the better hitting environments with a pair of bad bullpens.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, NBCSCA
Home run pick: Willy Adames (+557)
I have Merrill Kelly ranked as one of the worst starters on the board today. He gets hit hard, his fly balls leave the yard, and the expected metrics suggest the damage is fully deserved. He’s also coming off a complete game, and that recent two-start stretch against weaker offenses feels due for a hard correction. Just three starts ago, he was carrying a 9.95 ERA with six home runs allowed over a 19-inning span.
Willy Adames is the target today, and Rafael Devers was unfortunately left off the card yesterday despite getting plenty of consideration. Adames has logged 25 at-bats against Kelly, which is a meaningful sample and gives the hitter a sizeable information edge. He’s already taken him deep twice and owns a .946 OPS in the matchup.
Adames has homered in back-to-back games and has an extra-base hit in four of his last five. I’m backing the hot bat in what could be the best starting pitcher matchup on the board, especially with potential weather concerns hanging over the Zack Littell spot.
- Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, NBCS BA
Home run pick: Nick Kurtz (+340)
Nick Kurtz is climbing the AL MVP odds board and now sits as the No. 5 betting favorite at +2200. Over the last two weeks, he owns the third-fastest swing speed in baseball behind Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker, while also ranking inside the Top 20 in both ISO and slugging percentage. He’s coming off a 3-for-5 game in Anaheim and should get a full nine innings against some of the worst pitching in baseball.
Jack Kochanowicz is a pitch-to-contact arm with poor BlastContact numbers and is coming off a three-home-run outing at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
His bullpen is also a massive target, carrying the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks while dealing with closer issues. The Athletics piled up 15 hits yesterday, including six extra-base knocks.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, NBCSCA
- HR picks: 13-80 SU, -12.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
 Mike Trout |
Bet Now +10466 |
 Willy Adames |
|
 Nick Kurtz |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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