I started to dig myself out of an early-season hole with a +520 dinger from Ozzie Albies last night. With more bad-hitting weather and a getaway slate, I'm putting my HR eggs into one or two baskets today and picking on the best dinger settings to hopefully cash those MLB player props.
It's no surprise I'm going back to Angel Stadium, which projects as the second-best park for homers today, behind only Coors Field. And so, I'm also heading to Denver, eyeing Houston Astros first baseman Christian Walker to round out my betting card.
These are my favorite home run props and MLB picks for Wednesday, April 8.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Ozzie Albies |
+570 |
 Jo Adell |
+470 |
 Christian Walker |
+410 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +17356 |
Ozzie Albies (+570)
I’m a loyal guy, so when Ozzie Albies goes yard and cashes a +520 dinger yesterday and is 50 points longer today in a good hitting setting, I’m running it back. The switch-hitter always gets a bump in the order vs. lefties and will hit out of the three hole in the Atlanta Braves lineup.
His slugging vs. lefties is 100 points better since 2024, and he's facing Reid Detmers, who has been overworked early, throwing 199 pitches in two starts and coming off a 104-pitch outing. He hasn’t thrown more than 88 innings since 2023.
Albies has also proven he can get to a Los Angeles Angels bullpen that has been punching above its weight, with some metrics indicating more runs are coming.
Ultimately, with low temperatures across the board and some getaway spots, this +570 price in one of the best-hitting settings stands out, with a fair price being closer to +500.
- Time: 4:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, BravesVision
Jo Adell (+470)
Only Mike Trout projects for a better chance to go yard today in Anaheim, and with Jo Adell 100 points longer, his +470 home run price is the best +EV HR prop on the board today, per the Covers projections powered by THE BAT. In fact, THE BAT is projecting for starters Reid Detmers and Grant Holmes to both go over their 2.5 earned run totals.
Adell is coming off a very quiet 37-HR campaign in 2025, and the outfielder is starting to see the ball well of late, going 4-for-8 in this series vs. the Atlanta Braves with a long ball.
The Braves also used their five best high-leverage arms last night and could need some B-arms today. That's key as their bullpen has a 0.86 ERA through 41+ innings this year, which is unsustainable.
This is the best +EV home run prop on a slate with only a handful of players showing value.
- Time: 4:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, BravesVision
Christian Walker (+410)
Let’s go to the thin air of Coors Field for a +410 +EV dinger from Christian Walker, who went deep last night and has homered in three of his last four games. The Houston Astros' offense ranks third in baseball at 1.33 homers per game and is the No. 2 scoring offense in the league at 6.5 runs per game.
Yordan Alvarez is around +200 for a home run today, and Hunter Goodman, who projects similarly to Walker, is 110 points shorter than the guy we’re betting on.
Colorado's Michael Lorenzen can’t keep the ball in the park and has surrendered three home runs in just 7+ innings of work. In his last start at home, he gave up nine runs and two bombs. There isn’t always value in hitters at Coors Field, but Walker is flying under the radar at this price.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, COLR
- HR picks: 2-16, -5.6u units
Today’s HR parlay
| Ozzie Albies |
Bet Now +17356 |
| Jo Adell |
|
| Christian Walker |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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