The MLB postseason officially begins today, with four Wild Card games on the schedule. That means extra stakes when it comes to home runs, but there’s no shortage of value.
My MLB player props analysis will start with Aaron Judge, followed by Andy Pages and Manny Machado.
Best MLB home run props today
Aaron Judge
Andy Pages
Manny MachadoMake your HR plays at DraftKings
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HR Prop #1: Aaron Judge
Of course, we have to start with the reigning AL MVP. While Aaron Judge didn’t perform at his best during the New York Yankees’ World Series run last season, he’ll be looking to make an early statement this time around.
New York is up against Boston Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet, who's one of the most unhittable starters in the sport, but Judge won’t care.
The slugger is 3-for-15 lifetime against Crochet, and two of those hits have been bombs. Don’t forget, Judge just smacked 53 home runs in the regular season and led the Big Leagues in a variety of other offensive categories. He cracked 16 long balls off southpaws as well.
Judge certainly did his part against Boston this year, batting .286 with five homers. He could make Crochet pay for a mistake this evening.
HR Prop #2: Andy Pages
Maybe Andy Pages isn’t a superstar like others on this Los Angeles Dodgers roster, but he proved his worth in 2025. The 24-year-old hit .272 with 24 home runs and 86 RBI. In just his second MLB season, the Cuban made it clear he will be a big part of this franchise’s future.
Pages went deep four times in September, and he hit .333 against the Reds with two homers. He’ll face Hunter Greene tonight, who's an absolute stud. However, Pages has raked against him in the past. He’s 3-for-5 lifetime, and all of those hits were round-trippers. Needless to say, Pages has Greene’s number.
Pages has a very good chance of making that four homers off Greene in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card tonight.
HR Prop #3: Manny Machado
Manny Machado has never played great in the heat of October, hitting .215 overall in his career in the postseason. However, there’s no better time to change that than Game 1 of the San Diego Padres’ series with the Cubbies today. Machado left the yard 27 times this season while hitting .275.
He finished the regular season on Sunday with a homer against the Diamondbacks, and Machado ended up going deep six times in September. San Diego is up against Matthew Boyd this afternoon, and Machado has swung it well against him. He’s 5-for-13 overall with a pair of doubles.
Although he’s never taken Boyd deep, Machado’s power output is impressive against lefties, cracking 12 homers off southpaws in 2025 compared to 15 off righties. Boyd has allowed a homer in each of his last four starts, and 17 of his 19 bombs surrendered are off the bats of right-handed hitters.
Today’s HR parlay
Aaron Judge to hit a home run
Andy Pages to hit a home run
Manny Machado to hit a home run
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
- Aaron Judge, Yankees
- Manny Machado, Padres
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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