It's Dinger Tuesday, and I'm back on the longball beat, combing for the best four-baggers and MLB player props.
Max Scherzer is one of the more generous pitchers on today's slate, and there are some big Royals prices, while Aaron Nola's reverse splits are giving value to right-handed Seattle bats.
These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, Aug. 25.
Best MLB home run props today
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Vinnie Pasquantino
Randy Arozarena
Home run pick: Vinnie Pasquantino (+600)
Max Scherzer has the worst HR/9 of all MLB starters today since the beginning of last season, and that's saying something with Aaron Nola getting the ball today.
Scherzer enjoyed a good run after coming back from the IL, but just got shellacked for seven runs in his last start. He owns an 8.33 ERA at Rogers Center this year with nine dingers allowed in 27 innings of work.
All Royals batters get a good look today, but Vinnie Pasquantino at +600 was the easy choice. He doesn't have as many homers (2) as Jac Caglianone (5) in August, but his slugging (.769) paces the team and is third in baseball this month.
He missed 17 games with a wrist injury, but has a 1.218 OPS in his seven games back with two dingers and six extra-base hits.
There is a lot of meat on this HR bone with the fair price around +450.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, Royals.TV
Home run pick: Randy Arozarena (+538)
With Aaron Nola and his home-run gifts on display today, the Mariners were one of the first places I looked for HR prices.
Nola has ripped off back-to-back strong starts, but has still allowed the most dingers in baseball and is coming off a 100-pitch outing — the first time in 21 starts he's reached triple digits. He averages 91 pitches per start this season, and the efficiency could take a hit on the road today.
Right-handers have also handled Nola well, posting a better average against him than lefties since 2024, which is why I'm landing on Randy Arozarena at +538 with a fair price of +475. He leads the team in HR/FB rate (25.9%), HardHit% (41.9%), and SLG (.579) this month.
He's also gone deep seven times in August, with only three other hitters clubbing more.
It's a great price on a reverse-split pitcher who has been a HR gift, especially on Dinger Tuesday.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBCSP
- HR picks: 32-160, -7.07 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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