Dinger Tuesday calls for riding hot bats, even with temperatures dropping across the league. The focus shifts to indoor parks and a few West Coast spots where matchups and prices still create value in the home run market and MLB player props.
Junior Caminero said hello again to the Trop with a four-bagger yesterday, and I need him to do it again today.
Meanwhile, I'm doubling up on Atlanta Braves bats - Drake Baldwin and Ozzie Albies — as part of a four-player home-run round robin I'm brewing up for my best home run props and MLB picks on Tuesday, April 7.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Junior Caminero |
+400 |
 Drake Baldwin |
+560 |
| Ozzie Albies |
+520 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +17633 |
Junior Caminero (+400)
With the temps dropping to the 40s, finding dingers indoors is the key to a profitable home run card on Tuesday. The Trop is back, and Junior Caminero went deep there yesterday afternoon, which was his second straight game with a four-bagger. He has hits in four straight, and nobody in baseball has a harder hit ball than him, with his league-leading exit velocity of 116.9 mph.
He faces Javier Assad, who was recalled from Triple-A to fill in for Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton. In his last minor league outing, Assad allowed two home runs on 11 hits and profiles as a contact-heavy arm.
This shapes up as one of the better hitting matchups on the slate, making Caminero a strong value play at this price in a controlled environment.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Marquee Sports Network
Drake Baldwin (+560)
Drake Baldwin has already failed me this year, but, of course, he got hot after I bet on him with back-to-back games going deep.
He is currently tied for the league lead with five homers. A price north of +500 in Anaheim, with decent hitting conditions, is putting him back in my trust tree. He is a Top-10 hitter in baseball right now who isn't striking out.
There are three other Atlanta Braves who have taken Yusei Kikuchi deep over their careers in Ronald Acuna (+360), Matt Olson (+390), and Ozzie Albies (+520), so there is plenty of info for Baldwin, who handles lefties just as well as righties.
This might be a great spot for a two-man Atlanta round-robin homer card with the two shortest numbers making better than 20/1 odds. That's six combinations at doubles. At 0.15 units per bet, that would be a decent winner at less than a unit risk.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, BravesVision
Ozzie Albies (+520)
Let’s keep attacking Kikuchi in a solid hitting environment with Albies at +520.
He’s already part of a four-player round robin I have, but his solo HR prop at +480 or better still carries +EV based on projections. Albies is expected to hit in the three-hole against a lefty, a split where he’s historically been stronger than vs. right-handers.
Kikuchi’s profile is vulnerable to hard-hit fly balls, and Albies has already had success in the matchup, going 3-for-6 with a home run.
There’s also upside beyond the starter, as the Angels' bullpen has outperformed its underlying numbers, carrying a 4.51 xFIP that ranks near the bottom of the league despite a strong ERA. This sets up as a spot where the Braves could generate multiple home runs.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, BravesVision
- HR picks: 1-14, -8.8 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Junior Caminero |
Bet Now +17633 |
| Drake Baldwin |
|
| Ozzie Albies |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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