Dinger Tuesday means backing the hottest bats, even as cooler weather sweeps across the league. Attention turns to indoor ballparks and select West Coast matchups where pricing and opportunity still offer solid value in the home run market and MLB player props.
Junior Caminero made his presence felt at the Trop with a four-bagger yesterday, and I’m counting on him to repeat the performance today.
On top of that, I’m doubling down on Atlanta Braves power with Drake Baldwin and Ozzie Albies, rounding out a four-player home run round-robin in my top home run props and MLB picks for Tuesday, April 7.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Junior Caminero |
+400 |
 Drake Baldwin |
+560 |
| Ozzie Albies |
+520 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +17633 |
Junior Caminero (+400)
With the temps dropping to the 40s, finding dingers indoors is the key to a profitable home run card on Tuesday. The Trop is back, and Junior Caminero went deep there yesterday afternoon, which was his second straight game with a four-bagger. He has hits in four straight, and nobody in baseball has a harder hit ball than him, with his league-leading exit velocity of 116.9 mph.
He faces Javier Assad, who was recalled from Triple-A to fill in for Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton. In his last minor league outing, Assad allowed two home runs on 11 hits and profiles as a contact-heavy arm.
This shapes up as one of the better hitting matchups on the slate, making Caminero a strong value play at this price in a controlled environment.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Marquee Sports Network
Drake Baldwin (+560)
Drake Baldwin has already failed me this year, but, of course, he got hot after I bet on him with back-to-back games going deep.
He is currently tied for the league lead with five homers. A price north of +500 in Anaheim, with decent hitting conditions, is putting him back in my trust tree. He is a Top-10 hitter in baseball right now who isn't striking out.
There are three other Atlanta Braves who have taken Yusei Kikuchi deep over their careers in Ronald Acuna (+360), Matt Olson (+390), and Ozzie Albies (+520), so there is plenty of info for Baldwin, who handles lefties just as well as righties.
This might be a great spot for a two-man Atlanta round-robin homer card with the two shortest numbers making better than 20/1 odds. That's six combinations at doubles. At 0.15 units per bet, that would be a decent winner at less than a unit risk.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, BravesVision
Ozzie Albies (+520)
Let’s keep attacking Kikuchi in a solid hitting environment with Albies at +520.
He’s already part of a four-player round robin I have, but his solo HR prop at +480 or better still carries +EV based on projections. Albies is expected to hit in the three-hole against a lefty, a split where he’s historically been stronger than vs. right-handers.
Kikuchi’s profile is vulnerable to hard-hit fly balls, and Albies has already had success in the matchup, going 3-for-6 with a home run.
There’s also upside beyond the starter, as the Angels' bullpen has outperformed its underlying numbers, carrying a 4.51 xFIP that ranks near the bottom of the league despite a strong ERA. This sets up as a spot where the Braves could generate multiple home runs.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, BravesVision
- HR picks: 1-14, -8.8 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Junior Caminero |
Bet Now +17633 |
| Drake Baldwin |
|
| Ozzie Albies |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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