Just when you think the home-run landscape couldn't get any tougher, MLB gives bettors six games on Thursday with some questionable spots to look for four-baggers and other MLB player props.
The best setting today is in Kansas City, where the total is high, the wind is out, and the prices are +EV on both sides of the field. There are a few +400 or better dinger prices in that game that I have my eye on, but outside of Kauffman Stadium, it's a tough environment today.
These are my favorite home run props and MLB picks for Thursday, April 9.
Best MLB home run props today
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Munetaka Murakami 
Bobby Witt Jr.
Munetaka Murakami (+410)
Kauffman Stadium has the best home run conditions on the board today, as Thursday features one of the thinnest slates of the year, with just a handful of games and cold weather across the East Coast.
Munetaka Murakami projects as the most likely player to go deep, with a 0.28 HR projection per Covers, powered by THE BAT. With a fair price around +320, the Chicago White Sox slugger offers solid expected value in a limited market.
Seth Lugo is prone to giving up power, allowing 27 home runs over 145 innings last year, ranking among the higher HR/9 rates. With double-digit winds blowing out to left field, the total has climbed as high as 9.5.
Murakami hasn’t piled up hits yet, but half of his knocks have gone over the fence. The matchup, environment, and price all line up well in this spot.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network App, ROYL
Bobby Witt Jr. (+470)
Although Bobby Witt Jr. has yet to go deep, he leads the Kansas City Royals with a .409 xwOBA, which ranks inside the Top 25 in baseball. He’s been unlucky, but positive regression should be coming soon.
The hitting conditions at home are among the best on the slate, and he gets a favorable matchup against Anthony Kay, who has allowed a home run in each of his two starts and profiles as a contact-heavy arm.
Kay is also giving up plenty of hard contact — 92.4 mph average exit velocity — and the Chicago bullpen is also without three key arms.
As the weather improves, Witt’s HR price will likely drop below today’s number more consistently. This is a good spot to buy in on one of the top players in baseball in a strong matchup and favorable environment.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network App, ROYL
- HR picks: 2-19, -8.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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