Just when it feels like the home run market can’t get any tighter, MLB rolls out a six-game Thursday slate filled with tricky spots for targeting long balls and MLB player props.
That said, Kansas City stands out as the premier hitting environment on the board. With a high total, favorable wind conditions, and plus-money value on both sides, the matchup at Kauffman Stadium offers some of the best opportunities of the day. There are several +400 or longer home run prices worth targeting in this game, while the rest of the slate presents far fewer appealing options.
As a result, I’m locking in three bats from the Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals matchup for my favorite home run props and MLB picks on Thursday, April 9.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Munetaka Murakami |
+410 |
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
+470 |
| Miguel Vargas |
+590 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +14148 |
Munetaka Murakami (+410)
Kauffman Stadium has the best home run conditions on the board today, as Thursday features one of the thinnest slates of the year, with just a handful of games and cold weather across the East Coast.
Munetaka Murakami projects as the most likely player to go deep, with a 0.28 HR projection per Covers, powered by THE BAT. With a fair price around +320, the Chicago White Sox slugger offers solid expected value in a limited market.
Seth Lugo is prone to giving up power, allowing 27 home runs over 145 innings last year, ranking among the higher HR/9 rates. With double-digit winds blowing out to left field, the total has climbed as high as 9.5.
Murakami hasn’t piled up hits yet, but half of his knocks have gone over the fence. The matchup, environment, and price all line up well in this spot.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network App, ROYL
Bobby Witt Jr. (+470)
Although Bobby Witt Jr. has yet to go deep, he leads the Kansas City Royals with a .409 xwOBA, which ranks inside the Top 25 in baseball. He’s been unlucky, but positive regression should be coming soon.
The hitting conditions at home are among the best on the slate, and he gets a favorable matchup against Anthony Kay, who has allowed a home run in each of his two starts and profiles as a contact-heavy arm.
Kay is also giving up plenty of hard contact — 92.4 mph average exit velocity — and the Chicago bullpen is also without three key arms.
As the weather improves, Witt’s HR price will likely drop below today’s number more consistently. This is a good spot to buy in on one of the top players in baseball in a strong matchup and favorable environment.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network App, ROYL
Miguel Vargas (+590)
Let’s keep attacking one of the best home run environments on the board and go back to the Chicago side with the No. 3 hitter, Miguel Vargas, who projects better than his current price. THE BAT has Vargas closer to +500, creating a solid edge.
Vargas draws a favorable matchup against Lugo, a pitcher who can be vulnerable to the long ball. The profile fits — we’re not looking for singles here, just power — and the conditions only help with double-digit winds blowing out.
On a thin slate, there’s value in double-dipping against a homer-prone arm in a strong weather spot.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network App, ROYL
- HR picks: 2-19, -8.6 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Munetaka Murakami |
Bet Now +14148 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. |
|
| Miguel Vargas |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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