The home runs kept coming yesterday, and that makes three straight days with a dinger and an ROI that has had a makeover, going from -11.1u to +2.6u. Let's keep the good times rolling with more home runs and MLB player props.
I'm double-dipping from this afternoon's Rangers-A's AL West clash, while also grabbing Tampa Bay Rays slugger Yandy Diaz to do damage in a hitter-friendly scenario.
These are my favorite home run bets for Thursday, April 16.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
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Corey Seager (+490)
Corey Seager to hit a homer at +490 is the best +EV home run prop of the morning, with a fair price around +310, and it’s easy to see why.
He gets a great matchup against A's starter Jacob Lopez, a lefty who isn’t any tougher on same-handed bats. Lopez has already allowed three home runs in 13+ innings, and the setting in Sacramento isn’t doing him any favors. He’s also struggling with control, issuing 13 walks, which can lead to pitches leaking over the heart of the plate.
Jake Burger sits at +370 to go deep but projects for the same home run rate (0.29) as Seager. Almost every Texas Rangers bat is showing +EV for a homer today, suggesting this is a matchup the market hasn’t fully priced in.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Rangers Sports Network
Nick Kurtz (+410)
Sticking with the Rangers/Athletics game, Nick Kurtz projects as the best home run bet on the home side at +410, with a fair price around +330/+340. It’s a strong lefty vs. righty matchup, and Kurtz has already taken Jack Leiter deep in just three plate appearances.
The reigning Rookie of the Year hasn’t produced at the surface level, but the underlying power metrics are still there, including the best swing speed on the team and room for growth in his Blast Contact% numbers.
Leiter continues to give up loud contact and is coming off a four-walk, two-homer outing vs. the Dodgers. Plus, not many pitchers enjoy working at Sutter Health Park.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Rangers Sports Network
Yandy Diaz (+470)
The home-run setting is strong on the South Side of Chicago today, with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center field. The Tampa Bay Rays also get the ninth-inning guarantee and a favorable group of arms to target.
Opener Jordan Leasure could go a couple of innings, and two of the six hits he’s allowed have left the yard. He’s expected to hand it off to lefty Anthony Kay, who has posted solid surface numbers but has shown signs of regression.
His command has been shaky with eight walks in 14+ innings, and, to get nerdy, his ideal attack angle rate ranks near the bottom of the league, meaning hitters are consistently getting optimal launch angles against him.
I'm backing Yandy Diaz at +470. He hits at the top of the order and could see five plate appearances. His BlastCon% is the best on the team, and he is red-hot with a hit and an RBI in five straight games. The top of this Tampa Bay lineup could do some damage and might be worth a HR round robin.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, CHSN
- HR picks: 5-28, +2.6 units
Today’s HR parlay
 Corey Seager |
Bet Now +11888 |
 Nick Kurtz |
|
 Yandy Diaz |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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