Led by the two favorites for the NL MVP, Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong, there are plenty of great bats in position to hit for power on Sunday, as my Aug. 9 home run props explain.
Let's take a closer look with my MLB picks and MLB player props.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
+230 |
 Alex Burleson |
+290 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
+275 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +4726 |
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+230)
Pete Crow-Armstrong is hammering the baseball right now. He owns a .491 xSLG, 22.9% barrel rate, and 57.1% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching over the last 20 games.
He now finds himself playing in a very hitter-friendly ballpark with scorching hot conditions and high winds blowing out to boot.
The game conditions give a 33% boost to home runs today, which is extremely noteworthy for an elite player consistently hitting the ball hard.
Randy Dobnak has pitched well this season, but it only takes one mistake against PCA. Not to mention, the Kansas City Royals have an atrocious bullpen.
Play to +220.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, ROYL
Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+290)
Michael Lorenzen gives up a ton of power, particularly to left-handed bats. He ranks in the 19th percentile or worse in HR/9, xSLG, and average exit velocity.
Enter Alec Burleson.
He has crushed right-handed pitching this season, and consistently taken advantage of similar matchups.
Burleson has left the yard in 29.2% of his games against a right-handed starter ranking in the 30th percentile or lower in HR/9 vs. lefties. That implies +242 odds based on his success rate this season, making +290 an attractive buy.
I’d bet down to +270.
- Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, CARD
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+275)
Shohei Ohtani has been as productive as anybody against lefties, hitting .405 with an .811 SLG and 17% barrel rate over the past month.
He has also excelled against the pitch mix of Eduardo Rodriguez. Isolating his five pitches, Ohtani owns a .457 ISO and .504 wOBA against lefties the last 25 games. Incredible numbers across the board.
Eduardo Rogriguez owns a career HR/FB rate of 11.4%, and has only ever dipped beneath 10% in a season once.
His 8% HR/FB is likely to regress down the stretch, and Ohtani is a great target to take advantage.
Bet to +250.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, ARID
Today’s HR combo
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
Trade Now +4726 |
| Alec Burleson |
|
| Shohei Ohtani |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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