Stop worrying about going to work tomorrow! We have home run props to cash! Here are my three favorite home run props and MLB picks for tonight’s MLB slate, with Yordan Alvarez and Shohei Ohtani leading the way.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
+344 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
+238 |
 Jo Adell |
+307 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +18780 |
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+344)
Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez has been generating far too many hard-hit balls over his last few games, with four balls hit over 100 MPH since August 18. Over his last 10 games, he's maintained a .467 SLG and .200 ISO while owning a 24% ground-ball rate and 52% hard-hit rate.
Alvarez enters with one of the highest matchup ratings on the day over at Batters-Box, where he covers every single pitch in Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins' pitch mix. On top of that, the big fella is leaving the yard over 33% of the time across 24 elite ratings at home this season.
Over the last 30 left-handed hitters Perkins has faced, he owns a sub-8.00 ERA while allowing 3.18 HR/9, a 57% hard-hit rate, 19% barrel rate, and 33% ground-ball rate. Those left-handed hitters own a .443 xBA, .855 xSLG, and .402 ISO during that span.
Snagging Alvarez at nearly +350 to leave the yard today feels like a gift. Take this down to +300.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, NBCS-California
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+238)
Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani draws Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski, who's been struggling a ton against left-handed hitters this season. Especially across the last 30 he's faced, he owns a 14.40 ERA, 10.50 xERA, and 5.70 xFIP while allowing a 50% hard hit rate. Left-handed hitters during that stretch have posted a .475 xBA, .648 xSLG and .488 xwOBA.
Ohtani has been hitting the cover off the ball as of late, but he has not left the yard since the 18th. Since then, he has crushed four balls above 104.3 MPH. Over his last 10 games, he's maintained a .667 SLG and .385 ISO while posting a nearly 60% hard-hit rate and 18.5% barrel rate.
The megastar also enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he's left the yard 25% of the time he has been rated elite this season (25 games).
The price will never be overly attractive for Ohtani, but with how poorly Mlodzinski has been pitching, +238 is worth backing. Take this down to +220, or find a boost.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Los Angeles, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Home run pick: Jo Adell (+307)
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, CLEG
- HR picks: 108-373, +18.4 units
Today’s HR combo
| Yordan Alvarez |
Trade Now +18780 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
|
| Jo Adell |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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