Baseball all day long! We have a full slate ahead, with plenty of value in the MLB player props market.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 22, including why I expect a lot from White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Tomoyuki Sugano |
Over 3.5 Earned Runs | -120 |
 Kyle Leahy |
Under 3.5 Strikeouts | -111 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
Over 0.5 hits | -150 |
Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 earned runs (-120)
It's hard to overlook the advanced metrics pointing toward Colorado Rockies seasoned sophomore right-hander allowing Over 3.5 earned runs this afternoon. Most importantly, Tomoyuki Sugano draws the highest-rated lineup in baseball today. The Cleveland Guardians feature six elite-rated bats, with two more carrying strong ratings, according to Batters-Box.
So far at home this season, the second-year starter owns a 6.00 xERA while allowing a 13.37% barrel rate and 45% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters. With the Guardians only having one true right-handed hitter in their lineup, they should expose Sugano's biggest weakness, left-handed hitters, who have tormented him all season long.
The Rockies starter owns a 6.76 xERA against lefties, while opposing hitters have a .411 xwOBA. If 3.5 feels like too much of an ask, take the Guardians' first-five team total Over 2.5 at around -150.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, CLEG
Kyle Leahy Under 3.5 strikeouts (-111)
St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Kyle Leahy enters Sunday allowing the most hard contact among today’s starters, per Batters-Box, giving up over 45.5% hard contact this season.
He also enters with poorly rated matchup wOBA, ISO, and strikeout rate metrics. He’ll draw a Philadelphia Phillies team featuring three elite-rated hitters, along with one strongly rated bat. They also have just four hitters striking out above the league average.
Despite Leahy’s sudden strikeout surge, which has pushed his strikeout rate over 33% across his last three starts, the Phillies have shockingly dropped theirs to 12.2% over their last six games and below 16% over their last 12. This lineup has done a tremendous job maintaining a contact rate above 81% over the last two weeks. On top of that, against the last 30 right-handed pitchers they’ve faced, the Phillies have six bats with strikeout rates below 17% during that stretch.
With how much hard contact Leahy has allowed this season and how much the Phillies generate, the Under on his strikeouts feels promising. Take this down to -115.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCS-Philadelphia, CARD
Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 hits (-150)
It's still very perplexing why the books price Chicago White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami's hit prop so low on an everyday basis. Sure, he does strike out at a high rate, but he's one of the most lethal bats in baseball this season.
Either way, he's a go this afternoon against New York Mets right-hander Nolan McLean. Today marks Murakami's 28th elite rating at home this season. In the 27 prior, he has recorded a hit 70.37% of the time. Overall, in 55 elite ratings this season, he has recorded a hit nearly 71% of the time. Not to mention, he's hit a home run at a near 35% clip.
Over his last 10 games, he sports a .278 ISO while making a boatload of hard contact, generating a 52.4% hard-hit rate and nearly 20% barrel rate during that span.
McLean, against his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, has struggled. He owns a 5.68 ERA and 5.68 FIP, while allowing 2.13 HR/9 and a 47.6% hard-hit rate. Those lefties own a .366 xBA, .597 xSLG, and .364 xwOBA during that stretch.
Murakami also covers almost 87% of McLean's arsenal, crushing his main four pitches. At -150, it is worth paying the juice on a guy to do the bare minimum. If you want to chase value, his double is hovering around +750 and his home run around +400. Sprinkle on both.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, SNY
- Prop picks: 426-831, -9.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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