Some hard-hitting sluggers headline our MLB player props home run analysis for tonight's quiet nine-game slate. I'll include James Wood and Jordan Walker.
Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, June 1.
Best MLB home run props today
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James Wood
Jordan Walker
Home run pick: James Wood (+285)
James Wood will be licking his chops tonight as the Washington Nationals star faces Miami Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara. The veteran has allowed 53.9% of his contact through the air and posted a poor 4.97 FIP in May.
Opponents are also making plenty of loud contact against Alcantara, producing a 40.4% hard-hit rate this past month, while he's allowing 1.61 HR/9 over his last five starts.
This bodes well for Wood. He's in the 100th percentile in xSLG, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. The left-handed slugger owns a 23.5% HR/FB rate and a .225 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Alcantara's recent form only strengthens the case. He's surrendered five home runs across his last two appearances, while Wood has gone deep three times over the last seven days.
I'd confidently play this pick up to +250.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Nationals.TV
Home run pick: Jordan Walker (+378)
Jordan Walker is having a breakout campaign with 15 home runs, and he comes up against Jacob deGrom tonight. While the veteran's 3.77 ERA is respectable, the underlying numbers are more concerning.
He's allowing a 46.2% hard-hit rate this season, and that number jumped to 51.2% in May, when he also posted a 5.62 FIP. Walker owns a 21.2% HR/FB rate against right-handed pitching this season and has produced a 57.9% hard-hit rate over the last week.
Eleven of his 15 home runs have also come against righties, while deGrom has been tagged for seven long balls across his previous three starts.
I'd play this pick up to +350.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rangers Sports Network, Cardinals.TV
- HR picks: 7-45, -10.52 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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