Three hard-hitting sluggers headline our MLB player props home run analysis for tonight's quiet nine-game slate. I'll include James Wood, Mike Trout, and Jordan Walker.
Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, June 1.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
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Home run pick: Mike Trout (+310)
Mike Trout continues to produce elite power metrics, carrying a 48.6% hard-hit rate and a 21% barrel rate that ranks in the 98th percentile. He'll face Kyle Freeland on Monday, and the Rockies left-hander owned a 9.41 xERA in May while allowing opponents to post a 44.6% hard-hit rate.
The matchup is favorable for Trout, who has consistently punished southpaws this season with a .231 ISO and 144 wRC+. He also owns a 62.9% fly-ball rate against left-handed pitching, while more than 60% of the contact against Freeland has been in the air.
Freeland's recent form only adds to the appeal, as he's surrendered five home runs across his last two starts.
I'd play this pick up to +250.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Angels.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: James Wood (+285)
James Wood will be licking his chops tonight as the Washington Nationals star faces Miami Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara. The veteran has allowed 53.9% of his contact through the air and posted a poor 4.97 FIP in May.
Opponents are also making plenty of loud contact against Alcantara, producing a 40.4% hard-hit rate this past month, while he's allowing 1.61 HR/9 over his last five starts.
This bodes well for Wood. He's in the 100th percentile in xSLG, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. The left-handed slugger owns a 23.5% HR/FB rate and a .225 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Alcantara's recent form only strengthens the case. He's surrendered five home runs across his last two appearances, while Wood has gone deep three times over the last seven days.
I'd confidently play this pick up to +250.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Nationals.TV
Home run pick: Jordan Walker (+378)
Jordan Walker is having a breakout campaign with 15 home runs, and he comes up against Jacob deGrom tonight. While the veteran's 3.77 ERA is respectable, the underlying numbers are more concerning.
He's allowing a 46.2% hard-hit rate this season, and that number jumped to 51.2% in May, when he also posted a 5.62 FIP. Walker owns a 21.2% HR/FB rate against right-handed pitching this season and has produced a 57.9% hard-hit rate over the last week.
Eleven of his 15 home runs have also come against righties, while deGrom has been tagged for seven long balls across his previous three starts.
I'd play this pick up to +350.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rangers Sports Network, Cardinals.TV
- HR picks: 7-45, -10.52 units
Today’s HR parlay
 Mike Trout |
Bet Now +7944 |
 James Wood |
|
 Jordan Walker |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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